Saturday, March 31, 2012

what i dont (31 mar 2012)

i dont think in terms of/i dont use:

1. trendlines
2. channels
3. patterns (with certain exceptions)
4. fibonaccis
5. cost averaging
6. elliots
7. parabolics
8. retracements/dips
9. "bull'' or "bear" markets


i don't

1. like to catch falling knives
2. predict the future
3. set tps
4. do blind/naked trading: no plan, no trade (there are exceptions to this rule)
5. care about the dow nor the p6
6. daytrade (ok ... in exceptional cases ... sometimes i do daytrade)
7. shortsell
8. over analyse: i try to always remember  ... i make my money by trading ... not by analysing
9. like to keep things complicated nor think that the more sophisticated or more technical sounding the better
10. try to fool myself and be in denial when things dont go my way

 
*always subject to change without prior notice :)


back to: my trading rules

Friday, March 30, 2012

today's log (30 mar 2012)

no transactions for today .... just watched from the sidelines ...

lots of obvious spec ops the past few days

Thursday, March 29, 2012

today's log (29 mar 2012)

sold some agi

sold a few more clouds

sold some bcd

added a few more fdc

bot some more web

my stock picks for the coming weeks (29 mar 2012)

a member of the finance manila stock market forum who claims to be new to stock trading sent me a pm just tonite asking about the stocks im looking at for the short term (the coming several weeks) ...

if there is anybody reading this blog for the past months, the reader would have noticed a few recurrent favorites ... to cut the bs short, here they are and my reasons for holding them:

1. web - 20% stock divs exdate: 30 april 2012
2. fdc - east west bank listing: 7 may 2012
3. fph - rockwell land listing: by 14 may 2012
4. alhi - 100% stock divs ... no exdate until now
5. scc - expectations of a more than 10 pesos cash divs by may 2012.

if in life, the only things sure are death and taxes ... in stock trading ... the only things guaranteed are trading fees and losses. but in the 5 listed above ... im betting 1 peso they will reward me my 1 peso back and a few centavos more for my effort.

as always ... trader beware!

now let's make some money :)

p.s.: these are my stock picks and my money ... not stock recommendations to anybody. ;)

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Monday, March 26, 2012

today's log (26 mar 2012)

sold some cde

bot a few bcd for speculative purposes ... very intriguing trading the past few days

Saturday, March 24, 2012

when do i sell?

i sell when ...

1. prices are near resistance (i dont use trendline resistance, just the regular resistance)
2. prices breach support (i dont use trendline support, just the regular support)
3. indicators (macd, rsi/sts) say the trend is down with maximum downside possibility and minimum upside reward.
4. my stops are hit
5. a speculative buy opportunity presents itself  and i have no more cash to buy it ... i sell a laggard.
6. i have already completely satiated my greed :d

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


back to: my trading rules

Friday, March 23, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor (23 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


23 March 2012 closing prices


web (philweb)

c: 16.38 (+)
s: 16.32 (intraday low), 16.2
r: 16.40 (intraday high), 16.50
vol:-
dmi: +/16.11(+); buy signal last 22 march
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 77.69 (+)
sts: 87.22 (+)
rem: price is slowly inching higher; thin bid side ... buying is always @market; no macd buy signal yet ... maybe next week ... with rsi and sts still at overbot levels, some selldown by profit takers is always a possibility ... 20% divs exstock is just around the corner ... closely monitor ...

today's log (23 mar 2012)

did not trade today ... just watched from the sidelines

 
today's rant:

the downside of writing a blog is that resourceful "gurus" get to read it and recycle the ideas contained in it (no matter how weird) to their unaware zombies and pass it off to them days later as their own (thinking the possibility of being found out is so remote that appropriating it as one's own is just a walk in the park) .. oh well ... u know the idea was from ur blog because its so weird it could not have been tot by anybody but u.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

SCC 2011

selected stock report for the day: SCC


assets: 35.63 billion pesos
liabilities: 20.82 billion pesos
equity: 14.81 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 356.25 million pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 5.0 billion pesos
retained earnings: 7.08 billion pesos

revenue 2011: 25.81 billion pesos
revenue 2010: 22.90 billion pesos
% change: 12.73%

net income 2011: 6.03 billion pesos
net income 2010: 3.95 billion pesos
% change:52.58%

last closing price (22 march 2012): 243.40 pesos
earnings per share: 16.93 pesos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 14.38x
book value per share: 41.57 pesos
price/book value: 5.86
return on equity: 40.73%
return on assets: 16.93%
net income margin: 23.36%

current ratio: 1.25
debt-to-equity: 1.41


source of basic data: Annual Report 2011

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2012/SCC_P20IS_03222012.pdf


remarks:

1. the trailing p/e of 14.38x is neither cheap nor pricey.
2. net income change of 52.58% is quite impressive.
3. double digit roe and roa
4. net income margin is cool.
5. scc is liquid.
6. quite some debt but not something to worry about.
7. delicious retained earnings.

today's log (22 mar 2012)

added a few more web

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

today's log (21 mar 2012)

added a few more abc

bot some pqr (initial position)

about this blog

1. in lieu of an introduction

2. what this blog is all about 

3. question: blog photo


what this blog is all about

the blog "immovable as a mountain" is a collective blog of filipino stock market traders about their trades, tots on trading and the stock market in general.

the blog is not meant to educate the reader (assuming there is even one). it is purely a selfish endeavour by the shingen takeda trading collective without any altruistic pretensions whatsoever. caveat emptor.

the blog title is a line from the battle banner of shingen takeda, a warlord in feudal japan.

http://1kagemusha.blogspot.com/2011/11/immovable-as-mountain.html

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Sunday, March 18, 2012

regarding mer's property dividends

on 20 march 2012, mer's property dividend of 51% equity participation in the outstanding issued common stock of rockwell land corporation (the rock) goes exdate.

what does it mean for mer stockholders who will be recipients of the dividend?

for the sake of entertainment, let me posit the following wild scenario :) ...

on August 20, 2009, fph acquired Lopez Holdings’ 24.5% stake in Rockwell for 1.5 billion pesos. that places the rock's value then at around 6 billion pesos.

rockwell's net income in 2009 was 633.5 million pesos. in 2010 the rock earned 801.2 million pesos. for 2011, the company's bottomline target is 900 million pesos. finance manila member trxtan04 places 2012 projected income at 1 billion pesos.

so ...

6 billion (2009)
+ 633.5 m
+ 801.2 m
+ 900 m
+1 billion
---------------
= 9.3347 billion in equity (im making the wild assumption that the retained earnings will be converted to capital stock)

let me just round the figure off at 10 billion in equity. for simplicity's sake let's not include the 4 billion in corporate notes issued in may 2011 in the equation.

mer's 51% equity in the rock ... with 10 billion in equity ... assuming 10 billion in capitalization (10b shares @1 peso par value; 0 retained earnings), is equivalent then to 5.1 billion shares.

with mer having 1.127 billion shares, the property dividend therefore means giving mer share holders 4.52 rockwell shares for every 1 mer share, or 4.52 pesos in monetary terms (@1 peso par value per share).

op kors i could be wrong. this is just a wild attempt to monetise the 51% mer property divs.






today's log (16 mar 2012)

added a few more cde

bot some more mno

Saturday, March 17, 2012

when do i buy? - 1

i buy when ...

1. prices near support
2. prices breach resistance
3. indicators (macd, sts) say the trend is up with maximum upside possibility and minimum downside risk
4. a speculative buy opportunity presents itself 

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


for version 2 of this post see: trading tactics

back to: my trading rules

WEB 2011

selected stock report for the day: WEB


assets: 3.39 billion pesos
liabilities: 229.33 million pesos
equity: 3.158 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 1.11 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 900.67 million pesos
retained earnings: 1.51 billion pesos

revenue 2011: 1.17 billion pesos
revenue 2010: 1.04 billion pesos
% change: 12.04%

net income 2011: 915.7 million pesos
net income 2010: 629.0 million pesos
% change:45.58%

last closing price (16 march 2012): 16.16 pesos
earnings per share: .73 pesos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 22.26x
book value per share: 2.5 pesos
price/book value: 6.46
return on equity: 29.00%
return on assets: 27.00%
net income margin: 78.60%

current ratio: 8.48
debt-to-equity: 0.07


source of basic data: Annual Report 2011

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-1757_WEB.pdf

remarks:

1. a 20% stock dividend will go exdate 30 april 2012.
2. a 10 centavo cash dividend went exdate 27 feb 2012.
3. web's trailing p/e of 22.26x is quite expensive for my taste.
4. its net income is growing at an amazing compounded growth rate of 42% per annum! (from 2007) and i think they can maintain their current dividend for the next 3-4 years.
5. fantastic roe and roa
6. superb net income margin of 78.6% (the web annual report mistakenly wrote 60%, the previous year's nim)
7. web is liquid.
8. low debt.
9. web is not a trader's stock. price is not that volatile for short term players to profit from.
10. web is potentially an ideal regular dividend paying stock for buy and hold investors.



Wednesday, March 14, 2012

today's log (14 mar 2012)

sold some pnx

bot initial web position

bot some abc for speculation purposes

added a few more xxxy

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor - SM Investments Corporation (13 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


13 March 2012 closing prices

sm (sm investments)

c: 659 (+)
s: 631 (intraday low); 625
r: 677
vol: average
dmi: +/17.4(+); buy signal
macd: > 0; buy signal
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 60.62(+)
sts: 79.95(+)
rem: nice price action ... dmi and macd gave buy signals ...rsi and sts approaching overbot territory ... adjust stops ... monitor closely ... ready to sell

today's log (13 mar 2012)

added a few more fdc

sold make

Sunday, March 11, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor (11 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


9 March 2012 closing prices

agi (alliance global)

c: 12.10 (+)
s: 11.96 (intraday low), 11.50
r:  12.20; 12.24
vol:-
dmi: +/29.09(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 69.96 (+)
sts: 83.94 (+)
rem: agi still doing good; short term uptrend ... 12.20 waiting to be breached ... altho still around overbought levels.

glo (globe telecoms)

c: 1192 (+)
s: 1188; 1150
r:  1193; 1200
vol:+
dmi: +/9.14(-)
macd: > 0; buy signal
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 54.87(+)
sts: 46.02(+)
rem: macd buy signal; just monitor ...


marc (marcventures)

c: 3.19 (-)
s: 3.12; 3.0
r:  3.3
vol:-
dmi: +/40.87(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 70.66 (-)
sts: 87.28 (+)
rem: red candle after doji on a short term uptrend @ overbot levels ... does not look good ... continue monitoring ..

mwide (megawide)

c: 12.88 (+)
s: 12.5; 12.12
r:  12.98/13
vol:-
dmi: +/43.83(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 67.47. (+)
sts: 77.55 (+)
rem: start monitoring ... prepare for entry ..

scc (semirara mining)

c: 234(higher)
s: 230
r:  240
vol: average
dmi: +/19.91(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 68.07(+)
sts: 94.71 (+)
rem: strong price movement; trending up; 240 res waiting to be breached
 
secb (security bank)

c: 133.20 (+)
s: 130 (intraday low)
r:  record high ... no res
vol: average
dmi: +/39.17(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 69.82(+)
sts: 85.66 (+)
rem: trading well .. highest close ever... monitor for entry

sm (sm investments)

c: 640 (+)
s: 640 (intraday low); 625
r: 642 (intraday high)
vol: -
dmi: -/18.65(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 53.05(+)
sts: 51.85 (unchanged)
rem: continue to monitor closely

Saturday, March 10, 2012

a question about pnx (10 march 2012)

i just received the following inquiry from a member of the finance manila stock market forum about the possible dilutive effects of the proposed follow on offering by pnx ...

need your expertise
nalilito pa po ako sa FOO. ano difference nya sa 2PO at SRO?
This is dilutive di ba, so negative impact sa market price?

below was my response:

wehehe ... im not an expert and i dont claim to be one ... i only have opinions.

so here is my opinion:

an foo is an offering following an initial offering. in which case both an sro and a 2po are foos.

a 2po is an offering of primary (new) shares. proceeds go to the company.

a 2po maybe:

1. for everybody (public and shareholders ... like an ipo)
2. private placement (waiver of stock rights by shareholders)

an sro could be primary (new) or secondary (treasury shares or selling shareholders).

2pos and sros (primary) are dilutive. all things being equal ... short term ... price theoretically/rationally should go down to maintain the p/e ratio prior to the declaration of the offering. but short term the market is not rational. so who knows how the market would react wrt price: either ...

1. up - market sees new money to be good for expansion long term ...
2. down - market rationally (hurray! :lol: ) adjusts to p/e prior to declaration of offering short term
3. down bigtime - market irrationaly adjusts to old p/e ... short sellers pushing it down more than what is rationally appropriate.

but thats immediate/short term.

long term:

1. new money means company saves on interest they would have to pay had they borrowed money instead
2. new money means expansion
3. new money should translate to higher revenues ... higher profits ... thus p/e adjusts (e goes up... price goes up higher than old price ... p goes back up to reflect old p/e).

with respect to pnx ...

1. divs happen before foo
2. divs mean dividend play prior to exdate
3. div play would weigh more prior to exdate ... price effect of dilution may happen after exdate

as with all opinions ... they could be wrong ... my opinion included :lol:

tnx for ur question. :D

goodtimes! :D

today's log (9 mar 2012)

(for records purposes only)

sold all stok xxx
bot stok yyy


Tuesday, March 6, 2012

PNX 2011

selected stock report for the day: PNX


assets: 10.55 billion pesos
liabilities: 7.69 billion pesos
equity: 2.86 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 886.3 million pesos
retained earnings: 1.57 billion pesos

revenue 2011: 27.47 billion pesos
revenue 2010: 14.79 billion pesos
% change: 86.69%

net income 2011: 510.5 million pesos
net income 2010: 427.21 million pesos
% change:19.50%

last closing price (6 march 2012): 13.58 pesos
earnings per share: 1.04 pesos
price-earnings ratio: 13.58x
book value per share: 5.85 pesos
price/book value: 2.32
return on equity: 17.83%
return on assets: 4.84%
net income margin: 1.86%

current ratio: 1.09
debt-to-equity: 2.86


source of basic data: Annual Report 2011


http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2012/PNX_17A_Dec2011.pdf



remarks:

1. a 50% stock dividend will be given in 2012.
2. a 10 centavo cash dividend will be given in 2012.
3. asm on 8 march 2012

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2012/PNX_D20IS_02132012.pdf

today's log (6 mar 2012)

sold all agi
sold all marc
sold all gma7
added a few more pnx


Sunday, March 4, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor (4 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


2 March 2012 closing prices


agi (alliance global)

c: 11.98 (+)
s: 11.84 (intraday low), 10.90
r:  12.2 (intraday high), 12.24,
vol: +
dmi: +/24.84(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 73.9 (+)
sts: 95.58 (-)
rem: agi is doing good; short term uptrend ... tho already at overbought levels. take note of friday's doji. adjust stops.

glo (globe telecoms)

c: 1188 (+)
s: 1130
r:  1255
vol: -
dmi: +/11.07(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 54.24(+)
sts: 34.13(+/buy signal)
rem: just crossed 20dma; short term uptrend; no macd buy signal yet; sts buy signal; monitor

gma7 (gma network)

c: 10.00 (+)
s: 9.75 (intraday low); 8.92
r:  10.34 (intraday high)
vol: -
dmi: +/40.18(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 64.71(+)
sts: 72.73(+)
rem: short term uptrend; no macd buy signal yet; closely monitor

marc (marcventures)

c: 2.55 (+)
s: 2.48
r:  2.75
vol: +
dmi: +/31.86(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 56.36 (+)
sts: 39.52 (+)
rem: neither here nor there; no macd buy signal yet.  continue monitoring .. 

pgold (puregold)

c: 21.85 (+)
s: 20.5
r: 22.30(intraday high)
vol:-
dmi: +/40.15(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 58.12(+)
sts: 45.07(+)
rem: short term uptrend; no buy signal yet; 2012 income increased significantly but now too expensive for my taste. stop monitoring. consider again if below 20 (tho my views are always tentative and may be subject to change without prior notice)... but divs a possibility

pse (philippine stock exchange)

c: 405 (-)
s: 405 (intraday low); 392
r: 420 (intraday high)
vol:-
dmi: +/47.7(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: -
rsi: 67.9 (-)
sts: 56.93 (+)
rem: i dont know what the game plan is... im not playing anymore. stop monitoring

scc (semirara mining)

c: 220.80(higher)
s: 219.8 (intraday low)
r:  222 (intraday high)
vol: -
dmi: +/20.75(-)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: +(buy signal)
rsi: 49.68(+)
sts: 58.72 (+)
rem: macd buy signal
 
secb (security bank)

c: 131 (+)
s: 129 (intraday low)
r:  132 (intraday high)
vol: +
dmi: +/38.43(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 68.28(+)
sts: 88.61 (+)
rem: trading well .. highest close ever.

sm (sm investments)

c: 646.5 (+)
s: 640 (intraday low)
r:  651 (intraday high)
vol: +
dmi: +/24.24(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: +
rsi: 56.46(+)
sts: 40.87 (+)
rem: short term uptrend no macd buy signal yet... monitor closely