stok tots: aba, lihc (29 sept 2012)

just for the archives: on aba, lihc, abacoal and abagold

abacoal, lihc

1. aba owns 100% of abacoal

2. there's a heads of agreement between aba and lihc wherein lihc will merge with abacoal with lihc as the surviving entity and lihc as payment will issue to aba (thru abacoal) 250 m new shares of lihc (lihc has 740 m outstanding shares and 1B acs,) ... which means aba will eventually own about 25% of lihc. as of 30 june 2012, the merger has not yet been effected  but the agreement between aba and lihc is still binding

3. on 12 april 2011, the Department of Energy approved the conversion of abacoal's Coal Operating Contract 148 to Development and Production phase.  The proposed 5-year work program of abacoal was evaluated and found to be technically and financially qualified to undertake development and production of coal resources located at Tago, Surigao del Sur. due diligence over the coal property has been undertaken for purposes of verifying the reserves and studying the financial viability of the Coal Project, which per the appraisal conducted by Cuervo Appraisers, Inc., is valued at approximately P2.7 billion

4. abacoal is completing the post-approval requirements prior to actual operation, namely, the Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) and the Clearance from the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples (NCIP).  It is expected to start operations in the middle or latter part of 2012.

abagold

5. aba issued a 10% property dividend in abagold shares in the amount of Php 265,494,500. with a par value of 1 peso, abagold thus is assumed to have the same no.of shares as aba: 2,654,945,000. by implication, aba shareholders will own 1 abagold share for every 10 shares of aba on exdate (8 aug 2012)

aba

6. on 27 sept 2012, the bod of aba authorized its president to enter into a joint venture agreement, operating agreement, memorandum of agreement and/or such appropriate agreement or tie up with other parties for the following purposes:

a. exploration and/or development of the company's gold properties located in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Sur, upon the issuance of the appropriate national and local permits and clearances.

b. comprehensive real estate development, inclusive of acquisition and consolidation of properties in Lipa City, adjacent to the Fernando Air Base

c. lease, sublease and similar real estate activities over commercial properties in the area of Batangas International Port

d. development of real estate and communication infrastructure in Aurora Province.

7. aba owns 40% of pride star development bank (formerly rural bank of batangas)


references:

1. 2Q 2012 FS, LIHC http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/LIHC_A17Q_Jun2012.pdf
2. 2Q 2012 FS, ABA http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/ABA_A17Q_Jun2012.pdf
3. PSE circular 5450-2012 http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-5450_ABA.pdf
4. PSE circular 6949-2012 http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-6949_ABA.pdf

The Ninja Stock Monitor (ceb, 28 sept 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 

these are my trading notes for my reference only 
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

28 sept 2012 closing prices 

ceb (cebu air inc)

c: 54.30 (+)
s: 52.90 (intraday low); 52.40; 50

r:  54.65 (intraday high); 55; 60
vol: (average)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 24.47(+)
sts: 10.55(+)

rem: except for the last half of june, ceb has been battered by daily price sell downs for the 5 past months. from its april high of 71.40 to this past week's lows of 52.40 almost everyday seems to be a red candle day for ceb. it has never been in my stock portfolio since its ipo .. airlines are taboo stocks for me (if they are not a good buy for my idol warren, why should it be for me?) ... anyways ... as an experiment in chart reading and to further my charting education .. im monitoring ceb for the moment. both rsi and sts are at oversold levels but both are pointing north ... macd and macd histogram are both below 0, yet the macd histogram direction has changed to positive with the bottom seeming to have been reached already last thursday ... will start monitoring ceb closely this coming days for a possible initial miniscule entry position ... this trade will be like tempting the devil (cmon bebe, prove me wrong!).. trading despite my offlimits position on airline stocks like ceb and pal ...  

ALWAYS: always set stops

The Ninja Stock Monitor (vll, 26 sept 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 
these are my trading notes for my reference only 
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 sept 2012 closing prices 

vll (vista land and lifescapes)

c: 4.76 (-)
s: 4.65 (intraday low); 4.50
r:  4.79; 4.96; 5
vol: (+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 63.52(-)
sts: 67.79(-)

rem: seems vll is losing momentum ... rsi and sts already gave sell signals the past days .. macd also losing steam .. tho no sell signal yet .. start monitoring 

today's log (agi, vita: 26 sept 2012)

sold all agi : The Ninja Stock Monitor (05 aug 2012)

sold all vita: The Ninja Stock Monitor (vita,10 aug 2012)

The Ninja Stock Monitor (rlc, 26 sept 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 
these are my trading notes for my reference only 
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 sept 2012 closing prices 

rlc (robinsons land corp)

c: 18.30 (+)
s: 18.16 (intraday low); 18.10; 18.08
r:  18.40; 18.50; 18.70
vol: (-)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 46.06(+)
sts: 36.67(+)

rem: looks like rlc has already reached its bottom this week ... been waiting for that bottom since the last week of july .. see: 

The Ninja Stock Monitor (29 jul 2012)

no macd buy signal yet ... but macd histogram direction has turned positive already ... will start monitoring rlc for possible initial entry ... no target price .. i just trade the chart .. 

ALWAYS: always set stops

in the news: mac (24 sept 2012)

MacroAsia acquiring Negros gold mine

The Ninja Stock Monitor (agi, 21 sept 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 
these are my trading notes for my reference only 
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

21 sept 2012 closing prices 

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 13.40 (+)
s: 13.10 (intraday low); 13
r:  13.50; 13.60; 13.70
vol: (+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 78.84(+)
sts: 96.49(+)

rem: agi has been having a great run the past weeks and it is just 30 cents short of its all time high posted on 9 may of this year ... as to its future price action .. i dare not make a guess .. ill just adjust may stops and trade accordingly ..

initial agi position made on the weeks following 5 august 2012: 

The Ninja Stock Monitor (05 aug 2012)

so .. is px finally a buy? px ... 2 weeks after (px, 22 september 2012)

i posted this question two weeks ago when px closed at its 52-week low (17.20) ... and i said:

so ... is px already a buy?

i suggest to the reader to do his own analysis as an exercise ... will be good for u ... then lets compare notes

as for me ... ill wait a while first ... px may still go further south ... and i guess ill wait for the indicators to point up first before thinking of buying any share

is px already a buy? (px, 09 sept 2012)

http://1kagemusha.blogspot.com/2012/09/is-px-already-buy-09-sept-2012.html

let me review now where px is at the moment and see if anything has changed to likewise change my views:

fundamentally .. we know that the mine will be closed until end of the year at least ... so nothing new there ...

technically:

The Ninja Stock Monitor (px, 21 sept 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only

by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

21 sept 2012 closing prices 

px (philex mining)

c: 14.82 (-)

s: 14.82 (intraday low); 14.80; 13.74
r:  15.82 (intraday high); 16.12
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 22.6(-)
sts: 14.92(-)

rem: it seems nothing has changed except that px is 2.38 pesos lower than 2 weeks ago (-13.84%) ... macd,rsi and sts all still look bad ...  in this regard, im still a waiter:

  ill wait for the indicators to point up first before thinking of buying any share

btw.: px on sept 7-11 proved that the 52-week high on a friday rule also works the other way.

Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule

broker monitor (mac)

mac management uses pan asia securities (broker 218) in its share buy bak program

pse disclosures (bc, 21 september 2012)

BENGUETCORP  LABORATORIES,  INC.


http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-6816_BC.pdf

what i read today: One Popular Investor Obsession You Should Give Up Right Now (18 sept 2012)

One Popular Investor Obsession You Should Give Up Right Now

in the news: bc (18 sept 2012)

Benguet Nickel dividend

3 weeks ago today ... (chips, 17 sept 2012)

an evening to remember ... 2 stocks for 2013 (27 aug 2012)

to those who bought chips when they read the 27 aug  2012 blog entry .... congrats for being too early despite my warning ... despite having no written technical nor fundamental justification (but yes .. i was expecting a stock dividend .. but not this early .. for 2013 pa!)

i always tell my self: dont be too greedy .. when unsure what to do: sell half ur position (protect profits agad) .. let the profits run some more for the other half ... adjust ur stops.

great trades! good times!

"Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule"

for the past weeks ... certain issues have reached their 52-week highs  on a friday ... this reminds me of a certain "rule" tho to me is more of a supersitious belief (hehe) . the:

52 Week High Friday Rule

i first encountered it as a video presentation here: 

Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule

it is self explanatory and maybe be of help to people in their trading (profitably i hope) ...

note: this is not anyone's rule .. shoyu_ramen's ... hototay's nor anybody ... its the 

52 Week High Friday Rule

final remark ... this is mainly relevant for short term traders who bought/own the stock on the 52-week high friday


great trades! good times!

broker monitor (aev, ubp)

aev uses broker 121 - macquarie securities in buying ubp shares

what i read today: The way of the ‘Dragon’ (13 sept 2012)

The way of the ‘Dragon’

By: Edmund Lao
September 10, 2012 on Business Mirror

REMEMBER Bruce Lee? He is the “Dragon” who revolutionized the martial arts industry. He was launched into stardom in “The Big Boss” by breaking Hong Kong’s box office record.

After two movies, he co-produced, wrote, choreographed, and directed “The Way of the Dragon” which was one his best films and showed Bruce’s lighter side.

Even on interviews, Bruce always gave powerful insights about martial arts and specially life and relationships. There are a lot of quotes by Bruce that can help us in our personal finance and investing behavior.

Let us study the way of the “Dragon”:

“Using no way as a way, having no limitation as limitation.” Most of the times, people limit their capabilities by limiting their mindset. The reason Bruce succeeded is he believed he is not limited. After an accident, the doctor said he can no longer walk and fight. But walk he did. There is truth to the saying: “Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve”.

Empty your cup so that it may be filled; become devoid to gain totality. Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own. Most of the times, people just do not accept new knowledge. It is because of the old information they have obtained from others. Most often than not, these information are wrong. In teaching Jeet Kun Do (JKD), Bruce emphasized to students to unlearn first by discarding old knowledge so that they can absorb the new ones. A glass that is full will just overflow when water is poured into it. Empty our mind first, accept new information, then apply what is helpful and discard the useless. He also said “Learn the principle, abide by the principle, and dissolve the principle”. In short, obey the principle without being bound by it. LEARN, MASTER AND ACHIEVE!

A good fight should be like a small play, but played seriously. When the opponent expands, l contract. When he contracts, l expand. And when there is an opportunity… l do not hit…it hits all by itself. This principle is similar to stock market investment saying: “When everybody is greedy, I am afraid. When everybody is afraid, I am greedy.” Investing should always have flexibility just like water. Here is a good quote from him.”Empty your mind; be formless, shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water my friend” and.  “Notice that the stiffest tree is most easily cracked, while the bamboo or willow survives by bending with the wind.”

Knowing is not enough, we must apply. Willing is not enough, we must do. If you spend too much time thinking about a thing, you’ll never get it done. Nowadays, information is widely accessible through e-forums, blogs, seminars, and TV shows. However, despite the influx of information, for whatever reason, people tend to procrastinate. As RFP Chinkee Tan said, Mindset plus Action = Result. Without action, there is no result. Indeed, procrastination is the thief of time. Time that has passed is time gone forever. Usually  people would always act when the time is up.

Preparation for tomorrow is hard work today. What we are is the result of what we did in the past. What we will be will be the result of what we do today. Remember, yesterday is a canceled cheque, tomorrow is a promissory note and today is our gift. So maximize our gift which is TIME by making it our ally. Sacrifice by working hard now, enjoy and reap the benefits later. Always look to the ants as shared by RFP Randell Tiongson in his blog.

The less effort, the faster and more powerful you will be. The highest technique is to have no technique. Here, Bruce shows us the power of leveraging, by using less effort for bigger result. The more we leverage properly, the easier life will be.

Those who are unaware they are walking in darkness will never seek the light. This is precisely one of the reasons why there is poverty. Not knowing the that they have violated some financial principle, they will never be able to open their mind to accept solutions being shared to them specially if they are blinded by consumerism. Bruce further stressed “The More we value things, the less we value ourselves.”

And lastly

A quick temper will make a fool of you soon enough. Bruce emphasized patience. Majority always are in a hurry to gain everything to the point that they fall to scams. Always make it a point to investigate and check their emotions before making major decision to avoid regretful results.

Happy investing!

http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/banking-a-finance/32577-the-way-of-the-dragon

broker monitor (prc)

prc carries out its share buybak thru broker 141 - cualoping securities

in the news: scc (12 sept 2012)

Semirara pins high hopes on Bobog mine 

happy birthday faceless trader!

birthday greetings to fellow blogger and my idol ... faceless trader! :)

http://facelesstrader.wordpress.com/

is px already a buy? (px, 09 sept 2012)

due to the circumstances that the padcal mine finds itself in, px has been declining in price for the past weeks until last friday's close at 17.20 .. almost exactly the support during the first week of may 2011. is it already the bottom? is it already time to start buying bak our px shares?

let us see from a fundamental and technical point as tentatively done by urs truly ...

- px 1st half 2012 eps is 41 cents 

- assuming no production for the rest of 2012 as reported in sunday's news, px still has 1.77 billion pesos in inventories ... or roughly 30 cents in eps

- assume no costs and taxes ... px eps for 2012 is 71 cents ... 

- at last friday's closing of 17.20 ... px is trading at around 24.23 x earnings...

so is px currently a buy?

let us see again for a moment and compare it with some listed mining companies ...

atlas
1st half 2012 eps = 83 cents
annualised = 1.66 pesos
at 17.08 ... p/e 2012 = 10.29 x

marc ventures
1st half 2012 eps = 14.7 cents
annualised = 29.4 cents
at 2.30 ... p/e 2012 = 7.8 x

nickel asia
1st half 2012 eps = 95 cents
annualised = 1.90 pesos
at 17.20 ... p/e = 9.05 x

quite interesting ...
at a comparable p/e of 10x earnings ... px should be trading at around 7.10 pesos ...

technically ...
- px is already way way below its 50 and 200 dma and it just brokedown from its 20 dma
- macd is below 0 yet the macd histogram is still positive but pointing south and may possibly give a sell signal shortly
- rsi is already at oversold territory but sts is still a little above 20
- support is at 17.20 then 17.00

so ... is px already a buy?

i suggest to the reader to do his own analysis as an exercise ... will be good for u ... then lets compare notes

as for me ... ill wait a while first ... px may still go further south ... and i guess ill wait for the indicators to point up first before thinking of buying any share

good times! great trades!


p.s. all 1st half 2012 figures are from the pse website ... did not read the respective fs anymore

how do i pick which stocks to trade (07 sept 2012)

last saturday i attended a wealth securities seminar for newbies and prospective clients .. a friend of mine, a fellow blogger who works as a wealth securities analyst was one of the speakers ... and towards the end of the seminar, she introduced me to three attendees who she said wanted to meet me ... readers daw of my blog (wow .. i have 3 actual live blog readers! wooohooo!!) .. anyways we had an impromptu mini EB .. and i was asked how i pick the stocks i trade .. i evaded the question by replying to him with two of my stock picks for 2013 .. cirtek (chips) and pancake house (pckh) .. well .. i tot about it since and i guess its ok if i share or give an idea of how i pick the stocks that i trade .. so just to give it a structure ..  here it goes:

1. get stock ideas ... from:

- company news from online newsites
- pse website (company disclosures)
- fellow traders (financemanila.net ... chatrooms ... blogs (faceless trader of course tops my list)
- my broker (from inhouse rumours and other brokers at the trading floor)
- broker publications

2. read financial reports of companies with good stock stories from no. 1 ... classify companies into those with good fundamentals and those with bad fundamentals

3. check the charts of these companies .. classify into .. good charts .. bad charts

4. stocks with good fundamentals and good charts .. get included in the watch list ... these get priority 1 for trading (most of my trading come from this stock list)

5. stocks with bad fundamentals but with good charts ... get priority 2 .. these get traded when there is price action and volume

6. stocks with good fundamentals but bad charts ... get included in the monitoring list .. to be included later into priority 1 list when charts start to look good

7. stocks with bad fundamentals and bad charts ... get to be included also in the monitoring list ... until they get to qualify for either priority 1 or priority 2 lists

once i get to do these .. then i trade .. now .. when do i buy? see: when do i buy?

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


back to: my trading rules

broker monitor (fjp)

two major shareholders of fjp trades thru hdi securities: broker 174 and strategic equities: broker 192

the emperor's new clothes: tanduay holdings after it becomes lt group (05 sept 2012)

i was in a buffet dinner two fridays ago with some friends from finance manila and during our discussion on mergers and acquisitions .. the topic of tdy was brought up (btw ... rfm was also thoroughly discussed) ...one of the attendees asked whether tdy is already expensive or is it still undervalued considering the kapitan's various company assets said to be folded into tdy  (lt group post-asset infusion). the m&e expert present said that tdy was still undervalued (tdy closed @12.72 that friday) altho he did not mention his valuation of lt group) ... i said then that with the max. authorized capital stock that tdy is planning for lt group (25 B shares max) and the announced assets that will be supposedly folded into tdy ... the price of tdy is already too high ... altho i told him that i have to study again the disclosures so far posted in the pse website until that day …

with the recent disclosure: http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-6382_TDY.pdf ... im making these bak of the bus tiket calculations just as an exercise …

1. 2012 net income

income before income tax: 3.1 B pesos

provision for income tax: 0.6 B pesos

net income: 2.5 B (1^st half 2012)

net income annualized: 5.0 B

2. total number of shares of lt group:

3.981 B shares (as of 4 sept 2012) +

5 B shares (29 may 2012 BOD meeting) +

3 B shares (09 aug 2012 BOD meeting)

= 11.981 B shares (prospective)

3. 2012 estimated eps of lt group:

5.0 B pesos / 11.981 B shares

eps = .41733 centavos / share

4. estimated price of lt group at different p/e ratios:

at 10 x p/e = 10 x .41733 = 4.17

at 15 x p/e = 15 x .41733 = 6.26

at 20 x p/e = 20 x .41733 = 8.35

at 30 x p/e = 30 x .41733 = 12.52

so at 11.68 (closing price as of 4 sept 2012) tdy is trading at 28x 2012 estimated income ...

lets see at what price the coming share offerings of lt group will be set ;)

The Ninja Stock Monitor (31 aug 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

31 aug 2012 closing prices 

aba (abacus consolidated resources)

c: .76 (+)

s: .74 (intraday low)
r:  .79 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 47.21(+)
sts: 25.02(+)

rem: macd indicators are quite ideal ... but still no macd buy signal but maybe coming soon ... just monitor ... add a few more if 1.00 is breached?

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 11.78 (+)
s: 11.62 (intraday low)
r:  11.80 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 58.64(+)
sts: 91.5(-)

rem: sts pointing south ... histogram still positive but monitor carefully ... lighten up?

pip (pepsi)

c: 3.58 (+)
s: 3.51 (intraday low); 3.50
r:  3.59 (intraday high); 3.60; 3.65
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 66.56(+)
sts:80.18(+)

rem: 3.60 is a tough barrier to breach ...whats good is that no macd buy signal yet ... just monitor

tdy (tanduay holdings)

c: 11.92 (-)
s: 11.48 (intraday low);11
r:  12.36 (intraday high); 13
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 66.16(-); sell signal
sts:48(-)

rem: hammer ... while monitored indicators and price action are not optimistic ... 11.48 could be the bottom for the meantime ... monitor next candlestik 

web (philweb)

c: 16.94 (-)
s: 16.52 (intraday low)
r:  17.00 (intraday high)
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 75.81(-)
sts:96.58(-)

rem: another doji .. buyers maybe just taking their time before assaulting 17.00 successfully ... sold a few more webs ... but more than half of the position still long

previous Ninja Monitor