Sunday, September 9, 2012

is px already a buy? (px, 09 sept 2012)

due to the circumstances that the padcal mine finds itself in, px has been declining in price for the past weeks until last friday's close at 17.20 .. almost exactly the support during the first week of may 2011. is it already the bottom? is it already time to start buying bak our px shares?

let us see from a fundamental and technical point as tentatively done by urs truly ...

- px 1st half 2012 eps is 41 cents 
- assuming no production for the rest of 2012 as reported in sunday's news, px still has 1.77 billion pesos in inventories ... or roughly 30 cents in eps
- assume no costs and taxes ... px eps for 2012 is 71 cents ... 
- at last friday's closing of 17.20 ... px is trading at around 24.23 x earnings...

so is px currently a buy?

let us see again for a moment and compare it with some listed mining companies ...

1st half 2012 eps = 83 cents
annualised = 1.66 pesos
at 17.08 ... p/e 2012 = 10.29 x

marc ventures
1st half 2012 eps = 14.7 cents
annualised = 29.4 cents
at 2.30 ... p/e 2012 = 7.8 x

nickel asia
1st half 2012 eps = 95 cents
annualised = 1.90 pesos
at 17.20 ... p/e = 9.05 x

quite interesting ...
at a comparable p/e of 10x earnings ... px should be trading at around 7.10 pesos ...

technically ...
- px is already way way below its 50 and 200 dma and it just brokedown from its 20 dma
- macd is below 0 yet the macd histogram is still positive but pointing south and may possibly give a sell signal shortly
- rsi is already at oversold territory but sts is still a little above 20
- support is at 17.20 then 17.00

so ... is px already a buy?

i suggest to the reader to do his own analysis as an exercise ... will be good for u ... then lets compare notes

as for me ... ill wait a while first ... px may still go further south ... and i guess ill wait for the indicators to point up first before thinking of buying any share

good times! great trades!

p.s. all 1st half 2012 figures are from the pse website ... did not read the respective fs anymore