Wednesday, July 27, 2016

chart monitor: PPC/PRYCE CORPORATION (27 JULY 2016)

ppc chart as of 27 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


non-stok tots: doctor's tales 1 - kwentong moo-moo (27 AUG 2016)

kwento ng kapatid ko just now via text ...  he is a pulmo pedia doctor in the province ...

he was is his clinic daw today tending to his many patients ... and he takes note of "kevin" .. a 12-year old previous patient who he notices sitting in the waiting area ... and he continues on with tending to his other patients ...  

nung paubos na pasyente nya .. he asks his secretary .. "nasaan na si kevin? hindi ko pa sya natitingnan?" his secretary who also noticed kevin earlier ... began looking for kevin ... and she sends a text to kevin's lola who always accompanies kevin to the clinic to ask for kevin's whereabouts ... si lola naman ... nasa manila pala .... and she tells the secretary that kevin is in heaven na daw ... sabi ng secretary .. "anong nasa heaven?" ... sabi ni lola .. si kevin .. patay na two weeks ago pa .. he died sa heart center of a heart ailment!

umiiyak na sinabi ni secretary kay brother yun kwento ni lola ...

hahaha .... potah .... weird no? dalawa sila ni secretary na nakakita kay kevin! so hindi guniguni lang iyon!


mwide chart as of 27 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


Monday, July 25, 2016

chart monitor: VLL/VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES, INC. (25 JULY 2016)

vll chart as of 25 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


a question on vita (25 JULY 2016)

a question from a finance manila member this afternoon:

Hi sir shoyu

Whats your take on the chart if vita. Got some @ 1.03 last week as i do find it trending upward.


my response:

hahaha .. so ano problema? you are 10% ahead na .... you will just be letting your profits run from here on ...

i dont know your trading style ... you may have a target price for profit taking ...

im a trend follower .. so im just letting my profits run and ill only sell when my stops are hit ...

but here's my short chart observation:

1. vita closed higher at 1.15 after hitting an intraday high of 1.18 ...

2. resistance: 1.18

3. support: 1.13; 1.10; 1.07 

4. the macd histogram is higher .. tumataas pa sya ...

5. it has been on an uptrend since the first half of july ... its current bottom at 95 cents ...

6. of course it may still go up or start turning down .. who knows? we will only know when it occurs ..

so .. yun lang po ..

good luck!

Sunday, July 17, 2016

legacy's 52-week highs this friday (16 JULY 2016)

legacy (leg for short) ... finance manila (FM) occasional poster and desert storm (DS) chatroom member daily shares stock tidbits in DS's chatroom ... among those bits of info are the stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) with the highest and lowest closing for the past 52-weeks ... with his permission .. id like to post here the stocks on their 52-week highs based on their closing prices as of FRIDAY, 15 JULY 2016 ....

Thursday, July 14, 2016

chart monitor: PPC/PRYCE CORPORATION (14 JULY 2016)

ppc chart as of 14 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)



fdc chart as of 14 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


question: what about pxp? (14 JULY 2016)

a question this morning from a finance manila reader:

HI Boss Shoyu

How do you find the chart of PXP? Still with uptrend? First time to enter a speculative stock. But willing to hold for longterm. Was able to enter on Jul 12 @ closing of 4.70

Thanks for sharing

my reply:

if your willing to hold pxp for the long term .. just be warned that you must consider your money in pxp as 0 na ... it is a speculative stock .. so di mo alam talaga ano mangyayari long term ... so you just say bye bye na sa pera mo ..

short term ... i think the west philippine sea/south china sea thing has already been inputted na sa price ... well baka meron pa in the coming days but it depends na sa sentiments ng mga tao ... so the chart really depends on where the people will trade pxp ...

the next play would be on what pxp will do .. will it start drilling na for oil or what? .. but thats for the next play .. it may do so .. kelan? ... ewan ko .. hahaha ...

ive day traded kahapon si pxp from 5.10 to 5.50/5.49 ... tama na sa akin yun .. wont go bak to pxp in the meantime ... kahapon lang kasi the reward to risk is too good to pass up kaya bumili ako sa open ... 

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

what i watched today: High probability trading setups (12 JULY 2016)

this is similar to my own: 

my five steps: 

1. trend - i dont look at the 200 moving average ... i just look at the macd (im a short term trend follower) ...

2. areas of value - area below the 0 - horizontal of the macd histogram

3. entry trigger - when the macd histogram starts pointing up

4. set stop loss - the first support below the area of value

5. exit the trade - when the price hits my stop loss price 

Thursday, July 7, 2016


mpi chart as of 07 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


chart monitor: VLL/VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES, INC. (07 JULY 2016)

vll chart as of 07 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


stok tots: a question on stok tactics .. my recent ISM and CA trades (07 JULY 2016)

a question this morning from a trader in finance manila ..

Hi Shoyu,

pa disturb uli..

i was reviewing your ISM trades and noticed yung almost a month na pag upo mo from Apr 5 to 25 to ride it all the way to the top.

Ask lang ako ng iyong ideas on how you held on to your shares and even pyramid on the way up, yet also monitoring the MACD / your trailing stops ? o patigasan lang ng yag bols? (no offense meant :) )

In my opinion kasi e classic turle trend following strategy un ginawa mo, so pano mo nire reconcile un MACD vs the trend?

well may day job kasi ako e and mejo nahihirapan ako kung mag trend following ba ko (which can take weekls/months ) or MACD which can take sometimes 2 weeks lang. nakakahiya rin mag tutok sa screen...

hope na gets mo un question ko..


my reply:

hahaha ... tnx for the pm ...

first of all .. eto e aking isang rule ... rules are made to be broken! so whle i follow trend following rules .. there are times na you dont need to follow them ... well .. parang ganun ... hahaha ..

2nd .. in the market .. in general ... there are two kinds of stocks ... the regular stocks .. which you trade using technical indicators like the macd and buying low and selling high ... and there are the special situation stocks ... stocks with specific circumstances that are special for the period .. ISM was in this category during the tme i traded it ... 

what specific special circumstances are these? ...

1. it is a stock in transition (it still is) .. from a communications company .. it is being transformed into a holding company ... 'from a shell .. into something na may laman (up to today hindi pa natin alam kung ano) .. but this in itself does not make the stock move ... there is another key element that traders are looking for .. and that is the announcement of ...

2. the annual stock holders meeting .. may 24 2016 .. yun announcement of the stock holders meeting was made .. on april 5 2016 .. i made my first buy the next day ... april 6 .. at 1.36

so yun ... i added to my position as the price went up .. with the target to sell towards the asm .... everyday i watched it .. ready to sell if it peaked na .... and my last buy was april 25 .. 200 k .. at 1.95 altho na done at various prices around 1.95..... 500 k total position ... it peaked the same day at around 2.50 ... i sold at 2.40 to 2.35 nung bumababa na ...

i still looked at the macd .. pero parang oido ang nangyari .. kasi yun asm ang basic point of consideration ko .... 

others .. they still held on up to today sa ism .. when yun tide had passed na yung current cycle ... but it may still go up next time ... but that is another story ...

thats basically the same with CA which i traded at almost the same time as ISM .. i held an 8k position which i bought from 40 to 70 pesos years ago pa ... waiting for the specific special circumstances like ISM ... so yun ... 

1. it is in transition .. from an ortigas company into an ayala-sm company ...

2. announcement of its asm for june 30 2016 ....

same din nangyari .. naglaro ang mga traders .. bidding it up to 455 yata yun ... but i have my full position na ng CA .. 8k .... hindi na ako nagdagdag ... and i sold pataas .... starting 215 .... up to 448 ... kasi hindi ko alam kung hanggang saan aabutin .... i left 1k na hawak ko pa now .. ok lang kahit bumaba pa .. just in case may milagro ulit ...

yun iba they still held on ... until now .. bobo e .. when they should just ride the tide .... 

so ... while i have my macd still guiding me ... pag play na ng special situation stocks .. i just play it by ear .... yung regular stocks .. yun pa din macd ang guide ko .. buy low .. then sell if my stops are hit ...

yun stock holders meeting ang key sa both ISM and CA .... while siguradong wala surprises na i a announce sa meeting (may agenda na no!) .. akala ng mga tao meron magandang balita sasabihin ... hahah tang ina nila .. hahaha ... mga bopols ...

mejo mali yun pagkakaintindi mo .. macd is a trend following tool .. so hindi iba yun .... only nag iiba kung pa sell na .. whether you sell when your stops are hit (regular type of stocks) .. or you still hold on until the play has finally ended (special situation stocks) 

i dont know about the turtles ... until now hindi ko pa nababasa sila ...

i hope nailinaw ko ng konti yun ISM trade ko ...


Wednesday, July 6, 2016

stok tots: putang ina talaga (06 JULY 2016)

putang ina talaga ... eto na lang ang masasabi ko sa mga traders na ketalgal tagal na sa market pero bopols pa den ...

di ka ba mapapasabunot sa buhok mo (with apologies sa mga kalbo) kung may mababasa ka pa sa mga online stock market forum na tulad nito ....

" Long term on this ... do I hold?" sabi ng isang trader na more than 5 yers na sa market ...

sabi pa ng isang trader na more than 10 years na sa market:  "XXX  is the most valuable company now right?"

grabe talaga .... sa imbes na sila ang magbigay ng tulong sa mga newbie ... ganun pa din ang utak nila ... puta talaga ... haaayy ...


mpi chart as of 05 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)



fdc chart as of 05 july 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


Tuesday, July 5, 2016

a question on reading materials (05 JULY 2016)

from a newbie reader of finance manila:

Hello Newbie po,

any tips or reading materials about trading? alam ko po super dami ko pang kakainin bigas, gusto ko matutunan yung pagread po ng charts. bago sumabak sa giyera mabuti ng equipped, minsan nga kahit full battle gear di ka pa rin safe. nakita ko po mga post nyo.

my reply:

the books of john murphy, martin pring and alexander elder will be the most basic ... i suggest you start from there ... meron sa internet na libre ng ebooks nila .. you just have to look for them ...

from the internet ... ... l:overview

stok tots: a question about SSI (05 JULY 2016)

a question from a reader in fInance manila this morning:

Sir shoyu,

What is your target price for SSI?

I got in @ P3.34.

Is it still cheap at these prices.

I would appreciate any feedback.


my reply:

i dont have target prices for stocks ...

what i do is i have stops ... i sell when these are hit ... so like for example .... when you bought ssi at 3.34 (i assume you bought it yesterday) .. my cut loss would be a little below 3.17 (its lowest that day) .. so mga 3.15 cut loss ko ... now it went up 3.50 ... my stop loss would be a liitle below 3.43 (3.43 yun lowest nya today) so mga 3.40 ill sell na if it is hit ... 

habang tumataas .. you adjust the stop loss ... you sell when the stop is hit ... you dont adjust the stop loss down ... when the price goes down to the stop loss point .. i sell .. no ifs nor buts ...

as to cheapness .. im a trader .. so wala cheapnees sa akin or mahal ... i just look at the chart and trade the chart .. 


stok tots: a question on HVN (05 JULY 2016)

i received a private message from a reader of finance manila this morning:

Hi Shoyu

I just read your blogs regarding market trends and maybe you could give us an insight regarding a specific stock.

I have invested some large money over the said company (HVN) and was wondering if you could give me an insight since I am on a big loss right now as its plumming down.

My current average remains at 23.00 per share and I am really worried if i should sell my shares already. loss about 250k and plumming down right as of this moment.

I hope you could read my e-mail and give your honest insight regarding this.

Thank you and may God bless you.



my reply:

mr. XXX:

ave. of 23 ??????? e 23.10 yung high nito??? wow!

well first of all ... this: 

nobody knows the future .. nobody knows what will happen tomoro ... nobody knows what will happen to a stock a day .. a week .. a month .. a year from now .. anybody who says otherwise is a plain con man ok?

so .. this:

i dont know your circumstances in life ... but from what i can gather .. you are rich .. so 250 thousand is peanuts to you ...

so off hand .. the obvious answer is .. do not do anything .. if you can spend a lot on a single stock .. a 250 thousand loss is nothing to you ... so chill ka lang ...

the most sensible answer is .. sell everything and start anew ... obviously your a newbie .. otherwise you wont have the most stupid mistake a trader can commit .. buy at the top ... (i still commit this mistake .. so pareho lang tayo ... hahaha)

but ... to me .. since i dont know what will happen tomoro ... what i can advice you is this: sell half of your hvn so that you can start with that money and buy another stock and trade with that .. and hold on to the other half of your hvn and hope (hahaha .. im advising hope! tsk! tsk! ) ... 

now for a short sermon:

stay away from playing speculative stocks from here on .. lalo na kung IPO .. it can be a DD and it can zoom pataas .. e paano kung tulad nyan? .. haaay ... 

stay with blue chips for now .. buy low ... sell high .. mejo matagal nga kung tumaas .. pero at least tataas .. hindi nga sigurado din tataas .. but if you start when a stock is at its bottomest .. where can it go but up? (kung paano .. well thats another topic all together)

i hope your not offended by what i wrote ... but i hope you will consider my short sermon ... 

you can grow rich in the stock market .. but you have to be patient and work hard on it ... thats the way i did it ... for 25 years now ... and still getting richer!

good luck!