Hi Shoyu,
pa disturb uli..
i was reviewing your ISM trades and noticed yung almost a month na pag upo mo from Apr 5 to 25 to ride it all the way to the top.
Ask lang ako ng iyong ideas on how you held on to your shares and even pyramid on the way up, yet also monitoring the MACD / your trailing stops ? o patigasan lang ng yag bols? (no offense meant
)In my opinion kasi e classic turle trend following strategy un ginawa mo, so pano mo nire reconcile un MACD vs the trend?
well may day job kasi ako e and mejo nahihirapan ako kung mag trend following ba ko (which can take weekls/months ) or MACD which can take sometimes 2 weeks lang. nakakahiya rin mag tutok sa screen...
hope na gets mo un question ko..
regards,
xxxx
my reply:
hahaha ... tnx for the pm ...
first of all .. eto e aking isang rule ... rules are made to be broken! so whle i follow trend following rules .. there are times na you dont need to follow them ... well .. parang ganun ... hahaha ..
2nd .. in the market .. in general ... there are two kinds of stocks ... the regular stocks .. which you trade using technical indicators like the macd and buying low and selling high ... and there are the special situation stocks ... stocks with specific circumstances that are special for the period .. ISM was in this category during the tme i traded it ...
what specific special circumstances are these? ...
1. it is a stock in transition (it still is) .. from a communications company .. it is being transformed into a holding company ... 'from a shell .. into something na may laman (up to today hindi pa natin alam kung ano) .. but this in itself does not make the stock move ... there is another key element that traders are looking for .. and that is the announcement of ...
2. the annual stock holders meeting .. may 24 2016 .. yun announcement of the stock holders meeting was made .. on april 5 2016 .. i made my first buy the next day ... april 6 .. at 1.36
so yun ... i added to my position as the price went up .. with the target to sell towards the asm .... everyday i watched it .. ready to sell if it peaked na .... and my last buy was april 25 .. 200 k .. at 1.95 altho na done at various prices around 1.95..... 500 k total position ... it peaked the same day at around 2.50 ... i sold at 2.40 to 2.35 nung bumababa na ...
i still looked at the macd .. pero parang oido ang nangyari .. kasi yun asm ang basic point of consideration ko ....
others .. they still held on up to today sa ism .. when yun tide had passed na yung current cycle ... but it may still go up next time ... but that is another story ...
thats basically the same with CA which i traded at almost the same time as ISM .. i held an 8k position which i bought from 40 to 70 pesos years ago pa ... waiting for the specific special circumstances like ISM ... so yun ...
1. it is in transition .. from an ortigas company into an ayala-sm company ...
2. announcement of its asm for june 30 2016 ....
same din nangyari .. naglaro ang mga traders .. bidding it up to 455 yata yun ... but i have my full position na ng CA .. 8k .... hindi na ako nagdagdag ... and i sold pataas .... starting 215 .... up to 448 ... kasi hindi ko alam kung hanggang saan aabutin .... i left 1k na hawak ko pa now .. ok lang kahit bumaba pa .. just in case may milagro ulit ...
yun iba they still held on ... until now .. bobo e .. when they should just ride the tide ....
so ... while i have my macd still guiding me ... pag play na ng special situation stocks .. i just play it by ear .... yung regular stocks .. yun pa din macd ang guide ko .. buy low .. then sell if my stops are hit ...
yun stock holders meeting ang key sa both ISM and CA .... while siguradong wala surprises na i a announce sa meeting (may agenda na no!) .. akala ng mga tao meron magandang balita sasabihin ... hahah tang ina nila .. hahaha ... mga bopols ...
mejo mali yun pagkakaintindi mo .. macd is a trend following tool .. so hindi iba yun .... only nag iiba kung pa sell na .. whether you sell when your stops are hit (regular type of stocks) .. or you still hold on until the play has finally ended (special situation stocks)
i dont know about the turtles ... until now hindi ko pa nababasa sila ...
i hope nailinaw ko ng konti yun ISM trade ko ...
shoyu
first of all .. eto e aking isang rule ... rules are made to be broken! so whle i follow trend following rules .. there are times na you dont need to follow them ... well .. parang ganun ... hahaha ..
2nd .. in the market .. in general ... there are two kinds of stocks ... the regular stocks .. which you trade using technical indicators like the macd and buying low and selling high ... and there are the special situation stocks ... stocks with specific circumstances that are special for the period .. ISM was in this category during the tme i traded it ...
what specific special circumstances are these? ...
1. it is a stock in transition (it still is) .. from a communications company .. it is being transformed into a holding company ... 'from a shell .. into something na may laman (up to today hindi pa natin alam kung ano) .. but this in itself does not make the stock move ... there is another key element that traders are looking for .. and that is the announcement of ...
2. the annual stock holders meeting .. may 24 2016 .. yun announcement of the stock holders meeting was made .. on april 5 2016 .. i made my first buy the next day ... april 6 .. at 1.36
so yun ... i added to my position as the price went up .. with the target to sell towards the asm .... everyday i watched it .. ready to sell if it peaked na .... and my last buy was april 25 .. 200 k .. at 1.95 altho na done at various prices around 1.95..... 500 k total position ... it peaked the same day at around 2.50 ... i sold at 2.40 to 2.35 nung bumababa na ...
i still looked at the macd .. pero parang oido ang nangyari .. kasi yun asm ang basic point of consideration ko ....
others .. they still held on up to today sa ism .. when yun tide had passed na yung current cycle ... but it may still go up next time ... but that is another story ...
thats basically the same with CA which i traded at almost the same time as ISM .. i held an 8k position which i bought from 40 to 70 pesos years ago pa ... waiting for the specific special circumstances like ISM ... so yun ...
1. it is in transition .. from an ortigas company into an ayala-sm company ...
2. announcement of its asm for june 30 2016 ....
same din nangyari .. naglaro ang mga traders .. bidding it up to 455 yata yun ... but i have my full position na ng CA .. 8k .... hindi na ako nagdagdag ... and i sold pataas .... starting 215 .... up to 448 ... kasi hindi ko alam kung hanggang saan aabutin .... i left 1k na hawak ko pa now .. ok lang kahit bumaba pa .. just in case may milagro ulit ...
yun iba they still held on ... until now .. bobo e .. when they should just ride the tide ....
so ... while i have my macd still guiding me ... pag play na ng special situation stocks .. i just play it by ear .... yung regular stocks .. yun pa din macd ang guide ko .. buy low .. then sell if my stops are hit ...
yun stock holders meeting ang key sa both ISM and CA .... while siguradong wala surprises na i a announce sa meeting (may agenda na no!) .. akala ng mga tao meron magandang balita sasabihin ... hahah tang ina nila .. hahaha ... mga bopols ...
mejo mali yun pagkakaintindi mo .. macd is a trend following tool .. so hindi iba yun .... only nag iiba kung pa sell na .. whether you sell when your stops are hit (regular type of stocks) .. or you still hold on until the play has finally ended (special situation stocks)
i dont know about the turtles ... until now hindi ko pa nababasa sila ...
i hope nailinaw ko ng konti yun ISM trade ko ...
shoyu
