Sunday, March 31, 2013

ostrich hunting: gtcap (31 mar 2013)


gtcap chart as of 27 mar 2013 
(click on the chart to enlarge):




- tnx to finance manila member niveau
- chart by shingen takeda using citiseconline charts


achtung baby!: always set ur stops!

related posts:

- question and answer: what is the "ostrich pattern" (15 feb 2013)
question and answer: what is the "inverse ostrich pattern" ? (15 feb 2013)

for an explanation of the indicators i use ... click: here 

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

Saturday, March 30, 2013

my stock picks for the coming weeks (30 mar 2013)


for the next few weeks/months ...

1. mbt ... for the 30% stock dvis ... stockholders meeting: 15 april 2013

2. smph ... speculating on sm land ...  stockholders meeting: 16 april 2013

3. mpi .. speculating on the reverse stock split ... stockholders meeting: 24 may 2013



The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (30 mar 2013)


selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 

27 mar 2013 closing prices 

mbt (metropolitan bank and trust comp.

c: 117(unchanged)
s: 115.80, 114, 112, 111, 110, 109.60
r: 119.50, 120, 122 
vol: (+)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 55.44(unchanged)
sts: 58.39(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

mbt chart as of 27 mar 2013 (click on the chart to enlarge):



remarks: 
1. mbt closed unchanged (117) ... red candle ... intraday high (119.50) 
2. the macd histogram is higher ... the rsi unchanged ... the sts also higher ..
still no macd buy signal .. 
3. i bot a few more mbt's ..
4. present trading range: 109.60 - 122

previous MBT monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (26 mar 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (30 mar 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 

27 mar 2013 closing prices 

mbt (metropolitan bank and trust comp.

c: 117(unchanged)
s: 115.80, 114, 112, 111, 110, 109.60
r: 119.50, 120, 122 
vol: (+)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 55.44(unchanged)
sts: 58.39(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

mbt chart as of 27 mar 2013 (click on the chart to enlarge):





remarks: 
1. mbt closed unchanged (117) ... red candle ... intraday high (119.50) 
2. the macd histogram is higher ... the rsi unchanged ... the sts also higher ..
still no macd buy signal .. 
3. i bot a few more mbt's ..
4. present trading range: 109.60 - 122

previous MBT monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (26 mar 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (30 mar 2013)


selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 


27 mar 2013 closing prices 

mpi (metro pacific investments)  

c: 5.58(+)
s: 5.44, 5.32, 5.20, 5.18
r: 5.60, 5.64, 5.70
vol: (+)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (+)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 64.29(+)
sts: 85.23(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

mpi chart as of 27 mar 2013 



remarks: 
1. mpi closed just a pinch higher @ 5.58 .. doji candle ..
2. the macd histogram is higher .. the rsi and sts also  .. with the sts entering oberbot levels 
3. just hanging on ... 


previous MPI monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (26 mar feb 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SMPH (30 mar 2013)


selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks  

27 mar 2013 closing prices  

smph (sm prime holdings inc

c: 19.10(+)
s: 18.50, 18.42, 18.40, 18.20, 18, 17.82
r:  19.14, 19.30, 19.36, 19.48/19.50 (highest close)
vol: (+)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 58.26(+)
sts: 54.98(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

smph chart as of 27 mar 2013 (click on the chart to enlarge):



remarks: 
1. smph again returns above 19 pesos .. closing @19.10 ...
2. the macd histogram continues to go up ... but still below the 0 horizontal (no macd buy signal yet) ... the rsi and sts also advancing (still below oberbot levels) ...
3. will just continue to hold ... 
4. present range: 17.82 - 20.80


previous SMPH monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: SMPH (26 mar 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

Friday, March 29, 2013

what i read today: Investment Strategy Lessons Courtesy of Cyprus (29 mar 2013)


Investment Strategy Lessons Courtesy of Cyprus

what i read today: The winner of the March LitWit Challenge is No Permanent Address by Ronigurl


The winner of the March LitWit Challenge is No Permanent Address by Ronigurl



p.s. march 29 is the 44th founding anniversary of the neps ... the story brought bak a whole encyclopedia of memories ... those were the days ...

pero sabi nga ni cyndi lauper ...


We think we know what we're doin' 
That don't mean a thing
It's all in the past now 
Money changes everything 

wahaha .. another pm (29 mar 2013)


another pm from a finance manila member ... tsk tsk ..  walang bakasyon mga tao a hahaha

question:
Boss xxx, may I know kung ilan percentage below the  current price ang nilalagay mo na stops?


my reply:
i dont use percentage stops .. i place stops just below my entry price then as the price advances .. i adjust my stops .. either just below the next support level or just below the next major psychological support .. i use real supports as basis for my stops ... not imaginary ones < ....  edited out .... >

related articles:

what i read today: 3 Tricks to Stick to Your Stops (20 mar 2013)




what i read today: "Adventures Of A Trader" (29 mar 2013)

"Adventures Of A Trader"

Thursday, March 28, 2013

what i read today: Put your PC on a New Year’s diet (28 mar 2013)


Put your PC on a New Year’s diet

what i read today: 6 NATURAL WAYS TO REDUCE BAD CHOLESTEROL (28 mar 2013)



6 NATURAL WAYS TO REDUCE BAD CHOLESTEROL




in the news: sm, food, smc, mpi (28 mar 2013)


SM’s new hotel in Davao opens

By 



Alliance Select registers Gen San property as ecozone


today's log: ffi, mbt, sm,agi, gtcap (28 mar 2013)

my trades yesterday 27 mar 2013

1. i sold my remaining ffi's ... it was not an optimal trade .. it was not a trade done at my own leisure .. ideally .. i should still have been waiting .. either i could have posted at higher prices (since it is obvious the stock is being manipulated .... the manipulator is buying it up so that those unawares will post at the bid side and once the bid side gets a lot of bidders ... the manipulator dumps his load) .. or i could still have waited until the ex-stock date nears ...

but i did not have the time to wait ... i had to sell my ffi's .. why? read on ..

2. i added a few more mbts ... the price action these past days is my signal to add more mbt .. seems more people are riding on the "stock play" bandwagon


p.s. 2 blog readers chatted me up yesterday in ym asking me why i sold my gtcap's (one even tot i was joking) .. i reminded them about my blog post; when do i sell? ... there was a speculative opportunity present (the 30% stock div of mbt)  and i had no more cash left ... so i sold all my sm's, agi's and gtcap's to raise a small sum to load up on mbt ... eventually .. ill also sell my mbt's and buy bak my positions in sm, agi and gtcap ... hopefully their prices have not gone up much by then ... in essence .. im betting that agi, sm and gtcap wont rise 30% while im holding my mbt's ... im anxiously crossing my fingers

i consider mbt right now a speculative trade which i dont recommended to others (well, i dont really make recommendations .. period) ... im just simply gambling in this trade .. trader beware!

related posts on mbt:  The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (26 mar 2013)





Wednesday, March 27, 2013

what i read today: How To Trade With Confidence - Developing A Winning Mindset (27 mar 2013)


How To Trade With Confidence - Developing A Winning Mindset

more pm's (27 mar 2013)


id like to share two more pm's i recently received from a finance manila member ...

1. Hi,

Thank you for answering my question. Ako yung mukhang chinese.

I also bought pckh, thanks for the tip. oo nga maliit lang dividend nila, pero like you hold lang ako kasi tataas din.

baka pwedeng konting hint sa oxox na stock your accumulating, kahit konti makasabay ako =)

Marami na ako nabasa na trading style.  Yng style mo na pag read ng change in histogram sa chart, suited me kasi easier to understand.

Napansin ko you do a lot of research, baka I could help you sa iba (assistant) and at the same time I'm also learning it.  hope you consider, really like to learn under you.

Thank you


My reply:

the histogram trading "style" is not 100% perfect since there is always the possibility that it was a false bottom and that the stock may still go down .. thats y i always have a cut loss below the support level and i only buy 1/3 or 1/2 of my intended position to minimise my loses if the histogram entry proved wrong ...

the oxox stock is really a gamble and the pssibility of it not moving for a long time is there .. it is highly illiquid .. and i would only recommend it to my enemies hehehe ..

u can always send me pm's or u can chat me online sa yahoo messenger if u like .. if and when im online .. my ym is .. xxxx .. just mention ur fm username



2. Hi,

Will add you on my YM.

I have another question, how did you learn to read Financial Statement?

Thank you.



My reply:


i learned by actually reading the financial statement

and i ha<d> 3 units of accounting 1 in summar class in college ... hehehe  .. got inspired by my teacher then .. the byutyus ms. ana parco of upjpia .. accounting summa cum laude and <just fresh> cpa board topnotcher ... accounting 1 was among the subjects that i got a "1" on in school .. yabang no :lol:




Tuesday, March 26, 2013

stok tots: buying med anyone? 26 mar 2013)


quite strange that people all of a sudden are concerned about med's fundamentals ... they missed the whole shebang kasi 1 cent na lang par value? .. tsk tsk .. and mga beteran tsupiteros pa mandin pero takot mag trade kasi 1 cent na lang par value? wehehe

is our trading based on par value? obviously hindi .. since how come med even reached a high of 73 cents kanina .. were the people buying and selling kanina looking at par values? of course not .. they are trading using actual market prices ... in real time ...

so where is this 10k or 1k coming from (assuming you invested 100k)?

there is nothing in the disclosure about a reduction in no. of shares .. only the par value will be reduced (item no.1) .. so sino mag hair cut? not the traders kanina .. yung mag haircut .. yung mga original incorporators who contributed 1 peso per share for a total of 700 million shares .. their 1 peso is now worth .01 peso .. or 700 million divided by 100 or 7 million pesos .. which is again mentioned in no.1 of the disclosure ... i did not do the math on the deficit of med .... but the reduction in par value is supposed to do magic in the books of med .. wiping out the deficit ...

at 1 cent par value .. the med magicians will now create new 463 million x 100 shares .. or a total of 470 million capitalization:

7 million pesos (700 million shares x 01 par value) - item no.1 in the disclosure
+
463 million pesos (463 million shares  x 100  x 01 par value) - item no. 2 in the disclosure

= 700 million shares + 46.3 billion shares @ 01 par value
= 47 billion shares x .01 par value
= 470 million pesos new capitalization

private placement worth 117.6 million pesos ... or out of 47 billion shares ..  117.6 x 100 or 11.76 billion shares will be subscribed in pps ... .. item no. 3 in the disclosure

yan .. yan ang dilution ... from the 700 million original shares .. meron magsubscribe ng 11.76 billion shares

total shares = 700 million + 11.76 billion shares = 12.46 billion shares @ .01 par value ..

so ... assuming  all things being equal .. given the disclosure ... eventually med will be having a .58 cents x 12.46 billion shares =  7.23 billion pesos market cap .... @.58 cents closing price today

so magiging makano ang med eventually? .58 cents? .0058 cents (but x100 more shares)? wahahaha .. op kors ... the market will decide .. which will be dependent now on the new business/assets/chuvachoo to be infused by the new management .. we have a lot of previous examples ...

op kors .. i can always be wrong .. just my 1 cent par value contribution to the question of master DRAGON of finance manila

ill be glad to hear the opinions of masters mr. banker and mr. philinvestor ;)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (26 mar 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 


26 mar 2013 closing prices 

mpi (metro pacific investments)  

c: 5.55(+)
s: 5.43, 5.32, 5.20, 5.18, 5.10, 5.06
r: 5.60, 5.70
vol: (-)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (+)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 63.23(+)
sts: 70.86(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

mpi chart as of 26 mar 2013 



remarks: 
1. mpi breached its current resistance @5.58 .. even reaching the psychological resistance @5.60 .. but was not successful in holding on and succummed to last minute selling .. closing @5.55 .. still higher than yesterday's close ...
2. the macd gave a green arrow (buy signal) ... with both the rsi and sts also rising .. altho mpi is not yet at oberbot levels ...
3. i added a few mpi's ... just holding on ... the stockholders' meeting is scheduled for 24 may 2013 ...

previous MPI monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (06 mar feb 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SMPH (26 mar 2013)


selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 

26 mar 2013 closing prices 

smph (sm prime holdings inc

c: 18.48(+)
s: 18.42, 18.40, 18.20, 18, 17.82
r:  18.58, 18.78, 19, 19.30, 19.36, 19.48/19.50, 20, 20.80
vol: (-)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 49.02(+)
sts: 35.5(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

smph chart as of 26 mar 2013 (click on the chart to enlarge):



remarks: 
1. smph closed higher (18.48) ..
2. the macd histogram got nearer the 0 line ... no macd buy signal yet ... the rsi and sts both in the trading zone ... also pointing north 
3. im just holding on ... will add if it breaches and closes above 20 pesos ...

previous SMPH monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: SMPH (15 mar 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

today's log: med, mpi, mbt, gtcap

sold my last batch of med's ...

sold all my gtcap's

added a few more mpi's

bot a few more mbt's




today's log: med, stok oxox (26 mar 2013)

trades yesterday 25 mar 2013)

sold some more med

bot initial position  stock oxox

in the news: phn, ubp, pckh (26 mar 2013)


Phinma unit borrows P300M

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (26 mar 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks 

25 mar 2013 closing prices 

mbt (metropolitan bank and trust comp.

c: 115.80(+)
s: 114, 112, 111, 110, 109.60
r: 116.20, 120, 122 
vol: (-)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 53.04(+)
sts: 31.45(+

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here 

mbt chart as of 25 mar 2013 (click on the chart to enlarge):



remarks: 
1. mbt gapped up ... closing higher (115.80) .. 
2. the macd histogram changed direction ... with the rsi and sts continuing on higher ...
3. am still just holding ....... 
4. present range: 109.60 - 122

previous MBT monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (23 mar 2013)


for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

Monday, March 25, 2013

from a reader: "how do u pick stocks?" (25 mar 2013)

got this message this afternoon from a finance manila member ...


     Hi xxx,

Hope you still remember me, ako yung nagtanong sa iyo last time about how do you pick your stocks sa Wealth event last year. And thank you for answering, eversince I always read your blog. Is it ok if I ask you another question? How do pick your stocks even if its sleeping or stagnant (wala masyadong pumapansin) that it will go up eventually (i.e. FFI, Chips, MED)?

Thank you


my reply:

hi .. there were 2 of u magkasabay if im not mistaken .. sino ka dun?
chips .. the financial statement of chips looked good .. and when chucky bought a lot thru a block sale last year .. i had a strong feeling then that it will move sooner or later ... august tayo yata nagkita nun sa wealth event ... septemper pa lang gumalaw na .. pancake house lang yun isa ko pa nasabi noon .. ang nangyari .. instead na tumaas .. may malaking shareholder nag selldown ... mga 500k shares yun from 10 to 6 pesos sya sell down .. so no choice talaga market but to just stay away hanggang maubos ... and it is still below 10 pesos until now ... i was disappointed barya binigay divs this year .. but im not selling my pckh ... it will have its day and move like sevn ;) 
ffi .. matagal ko na hawak yun .. buy sell lang ako .. small float .. healthy financial statement .. sooner or later .. i know titirahin .. well .. ting! 100% stock divs! .. so tinira .. i sold last week sa mga 23 .. i still have half my position ... waiting to sell anytime if tumaas taas pa ng konti ... greedy pa ako e :lol: 
med .. hahaha ... tingin ko may nag short from 60 to 30 nung lifting ng trading suspension last week .. so .. easy .. no brainer ... no other thing to do but .. buy!!! kasi he has to cover eventually ... i bought sa 30 ... next day short ulit from 30 to 20 .. nag dagdag ako .. the rest is history .. nag ceiling yata kanina .. i sold 75% of my position na .. bukas we will see if i have to sell or buy more ...
so no secret really in my picks .. just basing lang from experience and gut feel and lakas ng loob ... dalawa lang naman yan .. either tama desisyon ko at kikita ako .. or mali ako at ill lose money .. luckily .. sa ffi, med and chips .. lahat profit ... 
plus .. good intelligence sources and may network ako sa trading floor thru my brokers .. sila taga ikot ko if meron ako gusto malaman from other brokers .. so bago pa lang mapost sa mga stock market forums kung ano chismis .. naka timbre na ako .. tatawagan lang ako ng broker ko ano chismis/news during preopen ... 
meron pa isa ako binili kanina ... katatapos ko pa lang mabasa yung financial statement over the weekend ... bingo ulit! tumaas din .. how high .. i wont tell kasi mahuhulaan mo ano ito .. im not prepared to share it yet .. im making this my second largest position after xoxo ... kulang pa hawak ko e ... but ill be accumulating this one over some time .. based sa financial statements .. it has the potential to give a 400% stock dividend .. and therefore fantastic price action like ace which gave a 250% stock div last year ... pero i dont think it will happen this year ... but it has no choice ... eventually it has to give the shareholders divs ... 
anyways .. tnx for reading the blog .. i hope i was able to address ur inquiry ..

p.s. in my reply above .. i said i bot med @ 30 cents and med went down to 30 cents on the 1st day of trading after  the lifting of suspension .. i checked the pse website and the low on the first day was 36 cents ..  sa 2nd day pala ako bumili ... when it opened @ 33 cents ...  went down to 20 before closing @ 28 ... i added a few more med the next day ...

sori for my confusion .... im typing from memory .. sensya na ... mahina na retention powers ng lolo nyo :(

Sunday, March 24, 2013

legacy's 52-week highs and lows (24 mar 2013)

legacy (leg for short) ... finance manila occasional poster and desert storm (DS) chatroom member daily shares stock tidbits in DS's chatroom ... among those bits of info are the stocks with the highest and lowest closes for the past 52-weeks ... with his permission .. id like to post here the stocks on their 52-week highs based on their closing prices as of friday, 22 march 2013 ...:

 charts as of 22 mar 2013 (click on the charts to enlarge): 


ffi (filipino fund inc)



ltg (lt group inc)



scc (semirara mining corp)



related posts:

"Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule"


52-Week High Definition



p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using a simple line chart with a 1-year range .. in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

charts by: shingen takeda