there is a disturbance in the force ... finally! pckh (24 apr 2013)

just a short remark:

i noted some unusual price action the past days in pancake house ... last thursday (18 apr 2013) .. da market securities bought up pancake house from below 8 pesos and closed it at around 9 pesos with not the usual pancake house volume (note: pancake house rarely trades) ..

yesterday ... lucky securities, golden tower and again da market securities combined and bought up pckh to a high of 12 pesos before some bastard sold it down to close it @11.50

i sense a disturbance in the force .... but i like it :)

pckh was 1 of 2 stocks i mentioned to fellow traders august/september 2012 that i said were my stock picks for 2013 .. the other was cirtek (chips) .. however chips only just weeks later surged ahead to around 12 pesos and even to a peak of around 29 pesos february this year ...

will be monitoring pckh closely ... baka meron pa sumunod na price action ...

always wear ur parachute!


previous posts on pckh:

an evening to remember ... 2 stocks for 2013 (27 aug 2012)

how do i pick which stocks to trade (07 sept 2012)

from a reader: "how do u pick stocks?" (25 mar 2013)

got this message this afternoon from a finance manila member ...

     Hi xxx,

Hope you still remember me, ako yung nagtanong sa iyo last time about how do you pick your stocks sa Wealth event last year. And thank you for answering, eversince I always read your blog. Is it ok if I ask you another question? How do pick your stocks even if its sleeping or stagnant (wala masyadong pumapansin) that it will go up eventually (i.e. FFI, Chips, MED)?

Thank you

my reply:

hi .. there were 2 of u magkasabay if im not mistaken .. sino ka dun?

chips .. the financial statement of chips looked good .. and when chucky bought a lot thru a block sale last year .. i had a strong feeling then that it will move sooner or later ... august tayo yata nagkita nun sa wealth event ... septemper pa lang gumalaw na .. pancake house lang yun isa ko pa nasabi noon .. ang nangyari .. instead na tumaas .. may malaking shareholder nag selldown ... mga 500k shares yun from 10 to 6 pesos sya sell down .. so no choice talaga market but to just stay away hanggang maubos ... and it is still below 10 pesos until now ... i was disappointed barya binigay divs this year .. but im not selling my pckh ... it will have its day and move like sevn  

ffi .. matagal ko na hawak yun .. buy sell lang ako .. small float .. healthy financial statement .. sooner or later .. i know titirahin .. well .. ting! 100% stock divs! .. so tinira .. i sold last week sa mga 23 .. i still have half my position ... waiting to sell anytime if tumaas taas pa ng konti ... greedy pa ako e  

med .. hahaha ... tingin ko may nag short from 60 to 30 nung lifting ng trading suspension last week .. so .. easy .. no brainer ... no other thing to do but .. buy!!! kasi he has to cover eventually ... i bought sa 30 ... next day short ulit from 30 to 20 .. nag dagdag ako .. the rest is history .. nag ceiling yata kanina .. i sold 75% of my position na .. bukas we will see if i have to sell or buy more ...

so no secret really in my picks .. just basing lang from experience and gut feel and lakas ng loob ... dalawa lang naman yan .. either tama desisyon ko at kikita ako .. or mali ako at ill lose money .. luckily .. sa ffi, med and chips .. lahat profit ... 

plus .. good intelligence sources and may network ako sa trading floor thru my brokers .. sila taga ikot ko if meron ako gusto malaman from other brokers .. so bago pa lang mapost sa mga stock market forums kung ano chismis .. naka timbre na ako .. tatawagan lang ako ng broker ko ano chismis/news during preopen ... 

meron pa isa ako binili kanina ... katatapos ko pa lang mabasa yung financial statement over the weekend ... bingo ulit! tumaas din .. how high .. i wont tell kasi mahuhulaan mo ano ito .. im not prepared to share it yet .. im making this my second largest position after xoxo ... kulang pa hawak ko e ... but ill be accumulating this one over some time .. based sa financial statements .. it has the potential to give a 400% stock dividend .. and therefore fantastic price action like ace which gave a 250% stock div last year ... pero i dont think it will happen this year ... but it has no choice ... eventually it has to give the shareholders divs ... 

anyways .. tnx for reading the blog .. i hope i was able to address ur inquiry ..

p.s. in my reply above .. i said i bot med @ 30 cents and med went down to 30 cents on the 1st day of trading after  the lifting of suspension .. i checked the pse website and the low on the first day was 36 cents ..  sa 2nd day pala ako bumili ... when it opened @ 33 cents ...  went down to 20 before closing @ 28 ... i added a few more med the next day ...

sori for my confusion .... im typing from memory .. sensya na ... mahina na retention powers ng lolo nyo :(

in the news: chips (01 nov 2012)

Laguna-based semiconductor firm nears deal to acquire Asian rival

3 weeks ago today ... (chips, 17 sept 2012)

an evening to remember ... 2 stocks for 2013 (27 aug 2012)

to those who bought chips when they read the 27 aug  2012 blog entry .... congrats for being too early despite my warning ... despite having no written technical nor fundamental justification (but yes .. i was expecting a stock dividend .. but not this early .. for 2013 pa!)

i always tell my self: dont be too greedy .. when unsure what to do: sell half ur position (protect profits agad) .. let the profits run some more for the other half ... adjust ur stops.

great trades! good times!

how do i pick which stocks to trade (07 sept 2012)

last saturday i attended a wealth securities seminar for newbies and prospective clients .. a friend of mine, a fellow blogger who works as a wealth securities analyst was one of the speakers ... and towards the end of the seminar, she introduced me to three attendees who she said wanted to meet me ... readers daw of my blog (wow .. i have 3 actual live blog readers! wooohooo!!) .. anyways we had an impromptu mini EB .. and i was asked how i pick the stocks i trade .. i evaded the question by replying to him with two of my stock picks for 2013 .. cirtek (chips) and pancake house (pckh) .. well .. i tot about it since and i guess its ok if i share or give an idea of how i pick the stocks that i trade .. so just to give it a structure ..  here it goes:

1. get stock ideas ... from:

- company news from online newsites
- pse website (company disclosures)
- fellow traders (financemanila.net ... chatrooms ... blogs (faceless trader of course tops my list)
- my broker (from inhouse rumours and other brokers at the trading floor)
- broker publications

2. read financial reports of companies with good stock stories from no. 1 ... classify companies into those with good fundamentals and those with bad fundamentals

3. check the charts of these companies .. classify into .. good charts .. bad charts

4. stocks with good fundamentals and good charts .. get included in the watch list ... these get priority 1 for trading (most of my trading come from this stock list)

5. stocks with bad fundamentals but with good charts ... get priority 2 .. these get traded when there is price action and volume

6. stocks with good fundamentals but bad charts ... get included in the monitoring list .. to be included later into priority 1 list when charts start to look good

7. stocks with bad fundamentals and bad charts ... get to be included also in the monitoring list ... until they get to qualify for either priority 1 or priority 2 lists

once i get to do these .. then i trade .. now .. when do i buy? see: when do i buy?

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


back to: my trading rules

an evening to remember ... 2 stocks for 2013 (27 aug 2012)

last friday evening found me in the company of fellow traders from the stock market forum financemaninla.net and non FM guests (my idol "facelesstrader" (http://facelesstrader.wordpress.com/) was there ... thanks a million to FM master the "DRAGON" for inviting her)  ... its was an evening to remember ... for aside from the "eat all u can" food and the "bottomless beer" ... i finally got to meet financemanila masters "philinvestor", "mr. banker" and "surfer" who all have their own FM stock threads ... i may get to write about what we discussed then (and it is always an evening well spent when FMers get to meet and chat over food and drinks) .. but that i guess will have to wait a while while i digest all the stock info that was shared that night ... altho id make one exception now to a question that was asked me by one of the attendees ... which small cap or illiquid stock am i buying at the moment ... i havent looked at their latest financial statements nor checked their charts (checking their charts by the way would be a futile exercise if one wants to discern their future course of price action as they are quite rarely traded) ... but i responded with two issues ... which i hopefully plan to write something about in the coming days .. and these are cirtek (chips) and pancake house (pckh) ... i clarified to them that im buying these two for the long term ( = 2013) ..  as it is quite difficult to buy a lot of them at a time .. so im nibbling a few bites if and when they are offered at my preferred price ...