Monday, March 25, 2013

from a reader: "how do u pick stocks?" (25 mar 2013)

got this message this afternoon from a finance manila member ...


     Hi xxx,

Hope you still remember me, ako yung nagtanong sa iyo last time about how do you pick your stocks sa Wealth event last year. And thank you for answering, eversince I always read your blog. Is it ok if I ask you another question? How do pick your stocks even if its sleeping or stagnant (wala masyadong pumapansin) that it will go up eventually (i.e. FFI, Chips, MED)?

Thank you


my reply:

hi .. there were 2 of u magkasabay if im not mistaken .. sino ka dun?
chips .. the financial statement of chips looked good .. and when chucky bought a lot thru a block sale last year .. i had a strong feeling then that it will move sooner or later ... august tayo yata nagkita nun sa wealth event ... septemper pa lang gumalaw na .. pancake house lang yun isa ko pa nasabi noon .. ang nangyari .. instead na tumaas .. may malaking shareholder nag selldown ... mga 500k shares yun from 10 to 6 pesos sya sell down .. so no choice talaga market but to just stay away hanggang maubos ... and it is still below 10 pesos until now ... i was disappointed barya binigay divs this year .. but im not selling my pckh ... it will have its day and move like sevn ;) 
ffi .. matagal ko na hawak yun .. buy sell lang ako .. small float .. healthy financial statement .. sooner or later .. i know titirahin .. well .. ting! 100% stock divs! .. so tinira .. i sold last week sa mga 23 .. i still have half my position ... waiting to sell anytime if tumaas taas pa ng konti ... greedy pa ako e :lol: 
med .. hahaha ... tingin ko may nag short from 60 to 30 nung lifting ng trading suspension last week .. so .. easy .. no brainer ... no other thing to do but .. buy!!! kasi he has to cover eventually ... i bought sa 30 ... next day short ulit from 30 to 20 .. nag dagdag ako .. the rest is history .. nag ceiling yata kanina .. i sold 75% of my position na .. bukas we will see if i have to sell or buy more ...
so no secret really in my picks .. just basing lang from experience and gut feel and lakas ng loob ... dalawa lang naman yan .. either tama desisyon ko at kikita ako .. or mali ako at ill lose money .. luckily .. sa ffi, med and chips .. lahat profit ... 
plus .. good intelligence sources and may network ako sa trading floor thru my brokers .. sila taga ikot ko if meron ako gusto malaman from other brokers .. so bago pa lang mapost sa mga stock market forums kung ano chismis .. naka timbre na ako .. tatawagan lang ako ng broker ko ano chismis/news during preopen ... 
meron pa isa ako binili kanina ... katatapos ko pa lang mabasa yung financial statement over the weekend ... bingo ulit! tumaas din .. how high .. i wont tell kasi mahuhulaan mo ano ito .. im not prepared to share it yet .. im making this my second largest position after xoxo ... kulang pa hawak ko e ... but ill be accumulating this one over some time .. based sa financial statements .. it has the potential to give a 400% stock dividend .. and therefore fantastic price action like ace which gave a 250% stock div last year ... pero i dont think it will happen this year ... but it has no choice ... eventually it has to give the shareholders divs ... 
anyways .. tnx for reading the blog .. i hope i was able to address ur inquiry ..

p.s. in my reply above .. i said i bot med @ 30 cents and med went down to 30 cents on the 1st day of trading after  the lifting of suspension .. i checked the pse website and the low on the first day was 36 cents ..  sa 2nd day pala ako bumili ... when it opened @ 33 cents ...  went down to 20 before closing @ 28 ... i added a few more med the next day ...

sori for my confusion .... im typing from memory .. sensya na ... mahina na retention powers ng lolo nyo :(