TRADING NOTES (dates to remember)

stok tots: guru ka pa naman ... mentor pa tawag mo sa sarili mo ... pero di mo alam kung FB e blue chip o hindi?

shet talaga ... tinawag niyang sarili nya na mentor .. nagpapabayad pa sa stok recos nya ... pero di alam kung ang FB e blue chip o hindi? leche ka! hahaha!

stok tots: FFI? FFI?? (26 JUL 2018)

potek ... the "engulfing" guru made another mistake na naman!

watch out for FFI daw kasi may proposal for it to provide the common towers for the telco companies!

kanina lang yun video nya before the opening!

leche ... so kung gago kang follower nya .. at the open pa lang kanina poposisyon ka na sa ceiling sa FFI para makuha yun opening trades sa FFI!

kasi hindi FFI yun stock in question ... FERRO yun e! tsk tsk ...

kawawa talaga yun mga followers nitong guru na to!

stock tots: the mark of a true trader (24 JUL 2918)

the mark of a true trader is when he picks the right stock at the right time ...

and not picking the right stock at the wrong time ... (tho eventually the stock will have its day naman) ... kasi wrong pa den yun at the time he picked the stock ...

stok tots: another "engulfing" reading (19 JUL 2018)

eto na naman po si "engulfing guru" ...  engulfing daw yun PXP yesterday ... tsk tsk ... kawawa naman itong guru na to ...

stok tots: between support and resistance (03 JUL 218)

overheard from an online stock guru:

guru: we are now between support and resistance...

me: huh? potah ... we are always between support and resistance ... duh??

eto ren yun guru na peyborit yun "engulfing" .. yesterday and today sa video nya ... tumira na naman yun engulfing nya ...

leche talaga ... hahaha😁

stok tots: COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (30 JUN 2018)

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIGIrrhDFz8

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 2)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKzlCLY4mOY

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 3)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Jl4hOc3csk

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 4)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unYJneHXWNU

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 5)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IpASbe-_Bw

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 6)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWGQMV9Vjus

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 7)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYGezwzeDzo

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 8)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAcRJKP600M

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 9)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yg7gBd5pJNM&t=6s

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 10)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HslkVl_Jw24

COL Trader Summit 2018: Momentum Trading (Part 11 - Q&A)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScZHYZrJH4c

stok tots: COL Trader Summit 2018: Position Trading (30 JUN 2018)

stok tots: ON PSE DISCLOSURES (11 APR 2018)

last sunday afternoon i dropped by a discord stock market chatroom .. i am a member of the chatroom but for a long time na i have not been present (even in my presence hindi naman ako nagpaparticipate .. lurker lang ako lagi) ... this time since walang trading i tot of participating in their discussion ... altho ang nangyari e i was in the hotseat so to speak kasi matagal na ako wala sa chatroom and madaming hindi nakakakilala sa akin and they tot of asking me questions ...

isa sa question nila ay: anong mga disclosure sa pse (edge) ang binabantayan ko at binibili pag lumabas ang ganitong disclosure?

altho di naman lagi na tumataas ang price following the disclosure ... i follow disclosures on stocks with regard to:

1. stock splits
2. change in name/change in corporate purpose
3. change in par value
4. mergers and acquisitions
5. proxy plays

maybe meron pang ibang disclosures but these are the ones in my mind at that moment kasi ...

tinatamad ako now to discuss each of the above mentioned disclosure but someday ill explain why i follow closely these kinds of diclosures and their price movement implication on the concerned stock but suffice it to say that these are the disclosures in the pse which i am interested the most in reading aside from the quarterly and annual reports of companies ...

stok tots: what goes up must come down (05 FEB 2018)

its been generally surmised that "what goes up must come down"

but warren buffett has said: "not necessarily .. there are things that can go up and up and up ..."

- aug. 30, 2017

stok tots: AC vs. SM: ano pick ko now? (06 JAN 2018)

AC and SM are the top 2 conglomerates in the PSE in terms of market capitalization at the moment: AC has a market cap of 661.57 billion pesos while SM has a 1228.67 as of yesterday 05 Jan 2018 ... and they are as of late neck to neck in the price appreciation race: AC closed 1065 while SM closed 1020 ...

if one has unlimited funds ... it is understandable if one has the two stocks in ones portfolio ... but if one has limited money and is to pick one of the two ... what would one choose? AC or SM?

im not using technical analysis as basis here ... im using the simple price earnings ratio to make my choice ...

using the PER .. the estimated PER of SM for 2018 at 1020 using ABCAPs 29 Dec 2017 valuation table is 30.39x ... the estimated PER of AC is just 20.88x ...

so using the 2018 price earnings ratios ... AC is much cheaper at this moment than SM ...

at SMs PER ... AC would be 1550.04!

last Thursday .. i sold all my SMs at 1060 ... i bot it at 906 on 04 Oct 2017 ... up 17%

i am now thinking of using my proceeds to add to my AC or ALI ..

stok tots (02 DEC 2017)

in the stock market ... 

you dont buy the stock that you want ... 

you buy the stock that most traders want ... 

you buy the stock whose price is going up!

stok tots: CEMENT ANYONE? (27 OCT 2017)

CHP or cemex has been a darling of a certain segment of the philippine stock trading population since its IPO last year ... its been their darling that they have it until now ... from its IPO price of somewhere in the 11s until today at 4.78 (as of todays writing at 11.52 a.m.) ... napaka loyal talaga nila no? kasi tataas naman daw talaga ito ... (hahaha oo tataas nga ... pero kelan?) pero look at it now ... its down more than 50% na since its IPO ...

pero teka ... ano naman ang sitwasyon ng iba pang listed cement companies jan? ang HLCM (or holcim cement) has been also down ... from its recent high of 17.30 ... down to 12.12 (as of 11.58 a.m.) ... yun EAGLE  na recently din nag IPO ay also down din ... from its high of 16.60 to its low of 14.56 today (nag intraday low pa kanina at 14.44)

with all the listed cement companies experiencing their lowest (or their YTD) lows at the moment ... di naman siguro kataka taka na wala akong trading position ni isa man sa kanila (i have a certificate of HLCM na nabili ko pa nung Davao Union Cement pa sya pero iba istorya naman yon)

of course iba pananaw ng mga may hawak pa nito (hindi para sa inyo ang article na ito) ... im just making a note sa mga wala pa nito (CHP, HLCM, EAGLE) na gusto bumili sa kanila ... if im a short term trend follower* and id like to buy into any of these stocks ... id wait muna ... oo nasa lows na sila ... pero pababa pa din sila e (except for CHP na above the 0 - line pa din ang macd histogram nito)... at pababa pa din yun price ...

... id buy lang if:

1. the macd histogram is below the 0 - line;
2. up ang histogram
3. up ang price and
4. wih the corresponding cutloss price

in the meantime ... hanap muna ng iba shares na positive sa 4 conditions na nabanggit ko sa taas ...


*what is a short term trend follower

stok tots: should i sell na my AC? (17 OCT 2017)

i was asked just a few minutes ago in facebook if  pwede pa ba daw humabol sa AC for somebody who is a mid- to long-term holder ...

hahaha ... samantalang iniisip ko na now is if pwede na i sell ang AC ...

pwede na nga ba?

before i think about it ... ill check muna about AC 2016 ... how much ba kinita ng AC nung 2016?  based sa summary figures ng PSE ... AC earned 39.31 pesos per share nung 2016 ...

now ... magkano naman kinita ni AC nitong 1st half of 2017? kumita ang AC ng 22.82  pesos ... assuming same den ang kikita nya sa 2nd half ng 2017 ... 2017 will earn AC 45.64 pesos ...

or 16.1% higher than in 2016 ...

at the closing price ni AC kanina of 1092 ... AC is trading at 27.78 times 2016 earnings ...

at an assumed 2017 earnings per share of 45.64 pesos and a PE of 27.78 ... AC should be trading at 1268 ...

assuming a PE of 30 times earnings ... AC should be trading at 1369 ...

so pwede na ba i sell ang AC?

of course pwede na ... i bought AC nung 916 sya ... at 1092 ... up na sya ng 19.21% ...

pero ...  assuming a 16.1% growth rate for 2017 and PE of 27.78 and 30 times earnings ... i can wait muna siguro ... until my stops are hit or .. have a higher 38.43% or 49.45% gain ...

stok tots: stok tots

On insider trades (10 OCT 2017)

stok tots: SC-72 ... panaginip lang?

these past few weeks ... tumataas ang price ng PXP ... from 3.20 nung 15 August ... to 9.91 kanina lang ... 25 September 2017 ... 3x na ang tinaas ...

at ito ay dahil sa pagasang i-lilift ng Department of Energy ang force majeure ban sa pag explore ng SC-72 ... kung saan ang PXP ay may 70% share ....

at ito ay sa dahilang bumubuti na daw ang relasyon ng Tsina at Pilipinas ... na inaasahang papayag na sa joint exploration ng SC-72 ...

ano? joint exploration? hahaha ... tanga ba sila? malabong mangyari yon ... for the simple reason that China maintains that it owns SC-72 and the whole China Sea ... it has its own chinese exploration companies which can do that ...  so ano kinalaman ng Pilipinas dun? lalo na kung totoo ang napapabalitang laman ng SC-72 ... ni singko hindi papayag ang China sa anumang bahagi ang makuha ng Pilipinas sa mga yaman sa ilalim ng dagat!

well ... sa ngayon masasabing speculative lang lahat iyon ... na posible pa din ang inaasahan na joint exploration activities between China at Pilipinas ...

ok ... pero  ... sa akin .. malabo talaga yon ... time will tell!

pero ... tumataas pa rin ang presyo ng PXP at ng iba pang listed companies na may kinalaman sa SC-72 ... so ... ride lang ako ... meron ako konti PXP at APX ... hahaha!





 

stok tots: alam nyo ba ang trading style ng guru guruhan nyo?

gago pala sila e!

nag tuturo ng stock trading ... hindi manlang tinanong kung ... day trader o swing trader o position trader or trend follower?

sino tatanungin? yun tinuturuan?

hindi! yun nagtuturo!

potah .. kung anu ano pinagsasabi ng guru guruhan ...  e hindi man lang alam kung ano trading style nung teacher?

e kasi naman .. pagsinabi yun trading style ng teacher .. e paano kung iba yun style nung tinuturuan? o mas malala .. wala palang style? e di maaaring mawalan ng students yun teacher kasi pala iba yun style nya!

kung ako sa mga students ... alamin nyo muna ang trading style nyo! at alamin ang trading style ng guru guruhan nyo!

mapapahamak lang kayo kung malaman nyo later e iba pala ang style nyo sa trading style ng teacher nyo!

sayang lang ang oras ... at pera nyo!

what is a buy for now?* The INDEX (01 SEPT 2017)

using my three indicator set-up* (1. is the histogram below the 0 - line?; 2. is the histogram up?; and 3. is the price up?) ... i looked at the stocks composing the INDEX and checked if any of these are a BUY at this moment (04 SEPT  2017) ... and here is the result ... 

                      histogram below       histogram is up?         price is up?    buy?
                      the 0 - line?                      

AC                       no                               yes                          yes              no
AEV                     no                               yes                          yes              no

AGI                      no                               yes                    unchanged        no

ALI                       no                               no                      unchanged       no
AP                       no                                no                           yes              no

BDO                     yes                            no                            no               no

BPI                       yes                            yes                          yes             yes

cutloss: just below 102.50 
DMC                    yes                             yes                          yes             yes
cutloss: just below 15.30
EDC                     yes                            no                            yes              no
FGEN                   yes                            yes                           no               no

GLO                     yes                            no                        unchanged       no
GTCAP                yes                            yes                            no               no 

ICT                       yes                            yes                            no               no

JFC                       no                              no                            no               no

JGS                       no                             yes                      unchanged       no

LTG                      yes                            yes                           no               no
MBT                      no                             no                            yes              no

MEG                     yes                            yes                          yes              yes
cutloss: just below 4.86
MER                     yes                            yes                          yes              yes

cutloss: just below 270.60; 268.40
MPI                       yes                            no                            no               no


PCOR                   no                            yes                           yes              no

PGOLD                 yes                           no                             no              no

RLC                      yes                           yes                            no              no
SCC                      yes                           no                             no              no

SECB                    yes                           no                            yes             no

SM                        yes                           no                            no               no

SMC                      no                           yes                      unchanged       no

SMPH                   yes                           no                            no               no

TEL                       no                             no                           yes              no

URC                      no                             no                           no               no

*by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell; blog contents are valid only up to the date of publication; the views found herein are subject to change without prior notice

*i used the macd indicator with the parameters (12, 26, 9)

*i used the charts of the COLFINANCIAL website

*i am a short term trend follower and i use my three indicator set-up in my basic analysis of stocks 

what is a buy for now?* The INDEX (28 AUG 2017)

using my three indicator set-up* (1. is the histogram below the 0 - line?; 2. is the histogram up?; and 3. is the price up?) ... i looked at the stocks composing the INDEX and checked if any of these are a BUY at this moment (28 AUG  2017) ... and here is the result ... 

                      histogram below       histogram is up?         price is up?    buy?
                      the 0 - line?                      

AC                       no                               no                        unchanged     no
AEV                     no                               yes                          no               no

AGI                      no                               yes                          no               no

ALI                       yes                             no                      unchanged       no
AP                       no                               yes                          no               no

BDO                     yes                            no                            no               no

BPI                       yes                            no                            no               no

DMC                    yes                            no                            no               no
EDC                     yes                            no                            no               no
FGEN                   yes                            no                       unchanged      no

GLO                     no                             no                        unchanged       no
GTCAP                yes                            yes                            no               no 

ICT                       no                              no                             no               no

JFC                       no                              no                            no               no

JGS                       no                             yes                          yes              no

LTG                      yes                            yes                           yes             yes
cutloss: just below 17.52

MBT                      no                             yes                          yes              no
MEG                     yes                            yes                          yes              yes
cutloss: just below 4.86
MER                     yes                            no                            yes             no

MPI                       yes                           yes                           yes             yes
cutloss: just below 6.50

PCOR                   yes                            no                            no               no

PGOLD                 no                             no                       unchanged      no

RLC                      yes                           yes                            no              no
SCC                      yes                           no                             no              no

SECB                    yes                           no                        unchanged     no 

SM                        yes                           no                            yes              no

SMC                     yes                           yes                           yes             yes

just below 99.00
SMPH                   yes                           no                       unchanged      no
TEL                       no                             no                           yes              no

URC                      no                            yes                          yes              no

*by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell; blog contents are valid only up to the date of publication; the views found herein are subject to change without prior notice

*i used the macd indicator with the parameters (12, 26, 9)

*i used the charts of the INVESTAGRAMS website

*i am a short term trend follower and i use my three indicator set-up in my basic analysis of stocks 

stok tots: is BEL under valued or is PLC over valued? (23 AUG 2017)

is BEL under valued?

or is PLC over valued?

from time to time ... traders who are interested in BEL and PLC may look into the relative valuations of these two stocks just for reference ... since BEL owns a majority of PLC's shares (78.7% as of the 2016 Annual Report of BEL) ...

as of 23 AUG 2017 ... BEL has a market capitalization of 37.8 billion pesos ... while PLC has a market capitalization of 50.6 billion pesos ...

at current market prices ... BEL's 78.7% ownership of PLC is worth 39.8 billion pesos ...

which means BEL is worth more that its present market price ... or another way of saying it .. it is worth its PLC shares with APC and its SMPH shares and other real properties already for free ...

you see ... aside from PLC ... BEL also owns APC and SMPH shares ...

APC's market capitalization is currently 4.73 billion pesos ... with BEL's shares of 48.8% worth about 2.3 billion ...

BEL also has around 66.7 million shares of SMPH which is worth another 2.3 billion (at current SMPH's price of 34.55)

summing up all of BEL's properties ...  39.8 billion of PLC + 2.3 billion of APC and 2.3 billion of SMPH ... it is worth 44.4 billion pesos or 4.23 pesos per share ... which is currently 17.5% more than its current market price of 3.60 ...

so is BEL under valued? or is PLC over valued?