Sunday, June 26, 2016

stok tots: tungkol sa presyo (26 JUNE 2016)

i was wondering ... why do people consider prices as if they are imbued with independent powers that rise and fall on their own?

dont they know that they have no independent powers? that prices are just numbers and that there are people behind them which are the ones that make them move or not?

or its just me? doesnt matter ... basta ako, ang presyo ay presyo lang ... at ang bawat presyo .. may bumibili at may nagbebenta at sila ang may alam kung bakit tumataas o bumababa ang presyo ng bawat stock ...

Saturday, June 18, 2016


acr chart as of 17 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


what i read today: Choppy vs Trending Markets (18 JUNE 2016)

stok tots: a question on dividends (18 JUNE 2016)

a reader from finance manila asked me a question last night ...

hi shoyu,

how do you compute for a stock's adjusted price on ex-dividend date? BCOR declared a 400% stock dividend and the ex-date will be on tuesday (June 21). BCOR closed today (June 17) at P31.50. What would be the stock's projected adjusted price on June 21?

On another note, I was disappointed why BCOR did not increase four-fold when there is a forthcoming 400% stock dividend. Last October 2015 (announcement of 400% stock dividend), BCOR was already doing P25-P27/share. Last week when the ex-date was announced, I thought BCOR's price would increase 4x to about P100/share because upon ex-date, the stock price will adjust back to P25 but it did not perform as expected.
What do you think went wrong with BCOR? The price increase to P31.50 is lackluster considering the upcoming 400% stock dividend.

If you were in my place, would you rather sell your shares at P31.50 or thereabouts (my average buying price was P27) on June 20 (day before ex-date) and lock in a small profit or avail of the 400% stock dividend to have more shares to sell in the future at a price that will not adjust the full 400% since the stock itself did not appreciate to the extent of 400%?

Thanks in advance!

my answer:

hi  xxx ....

1 . AP = OP x 100%/(SD + 100%)

AP = 31.50 X 100%/(400% + 100%)

AP = 31.50 x 100%/500%

AP = 31.50 x .20 

AP = 6.30

AP = adjusted price
OP = old price
SD = stock dividend

2. My thinking is that the price of BCOR has already priced in the dividend ... no one knows how stocks behave ... NO ONE ... we can only make explanations AFTER the fact ... kahit sino pa mag sabi na he can predict the price .. hula lang iyon .. if it happens ... chamba lang yon .. and we can only know AFTER the fact ...

some stocks gumagalaw after a big stock div ... it depends on the big money! if he wants to move the stock and malaki puhunan nya .. he can make it move .. ganun lang naman yun ... walang magic magic ... he who has the big money moves the price!

3. to sell or not to sell? hahaha .. as i said .. we can know what happens to a stock AFTER the fact ... who knows what will happen after ex date? we can only speculate ... 

depende na iyan sa iyo ... if wala ka pangangailangan sa pera .. if you do not have any other stok purchases .. pwede mo i hold lang ...

as for me ... i wont hold it .. ill transfer it to more liquid and more volatile stocks .. gusto ko yun gumagalaw e (or yung malapit na gumalaw)

hindi ko alam mangyayari e ... pwede naman gumalaw after ex date .. who knows? 

ill take the risk and sell .. pwede naman buy bak later if ever gumalaw (assuming maka habol ka pa)... 

Sunday, June 5, 2016

chart monitor: MED/MEDCO HOLDINGS, INC (05 JUN 2016)

med chart as of 03 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


chart monitor: SSI/SSI GROUP, INC. (05 JUN 2016)

ssi chart as of 03 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)



tel chart as of 03 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


chart monitor: VLL/VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES, INC. (05 JUNE 2016)

vll chart as of 03 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)



jfc chart as of 03 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


Thursday, June 2, 2016


stok tots: what is a "short term trend follower?" (02 JUNE 2016)

first, a brief introducton about myself ...

im a trader whose been trading for about 25 years (around 1991)  ... my first trades were a 2000 share bet on ans at 1 peso (which i sold six months later at 2 pesos ... ang saya ko nun) ... and an IPO on shang (two-1000 share bets ... nasa akin pa den yun stock certificate until today) ... also among my first trades was a 1000 share IPO of ali  (the IPO price was 21 pesos which i subsequently sold for 27 pesos)  ...

i was first a fundamentalist ... trading mostly using p/e ratios as my guide ... buying stocks with p/es below 10x ...  i was a fundamentalist for quite a time ...

then i became unemployed january 2005 ... forcing me to focus on stock trading on a full-time basis (wala ako ginagawa sa bahay e ... so ano gagawin ko? e di nag stocks na lang ako tuloy tuloy) ..

only then did i slowly evolve into what i am now ... a "short term trend follower" ... matagal and mabagal ang aking pag-transform and i still am evolving ... . 

so what is a short term trend follower? ... i do not know if there is anybody else calling himself a short term trend follower ... so i am making a definition that is only applicable to me ...

a short term trend follower is one who uses   ...

-  a daily chart as a tool (not a weekly or monthly chart ... nor a chart that has a shorter duration than 1-day (1- 5 -10-second  etc charts) ...

-  the macd as a primary indicator (moving average convergence divergence) ...

-  the stochastic oscillator as a secondary indicator (15, 3, 5 periods)

-  a cut-loss and trailing stops ... 

i will add on to the above listed definition as i further evolve in my trading journey ...


secb chart as of 02 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)


chart monitor: AC/AYALA CORPORATION (02 JUNE 2016)

ac chart as of 01 june 2016 
(click on the chart to enlarge)