my simple trading system ...

question and answer: from a reader in investagrams (10 MAR 2018)

i got a question from a blog reader in investagrams yesterday ...

question

Hi Good Evening, I have read your blog dated Aug 12, 2012 about my trading tactics. Hope you don't mind if I ask how do I know if the bottom has been reached already using Macd? or am i wrong with my understanding with your blog. 
thank you. 

my response:

hi @jxxxxx ... its been a while since i last visited that section of my blog and i have moved also since then ... my blog is still a blog in the making ... its being made and remade everyday ... so lets me make some refinements in my tactics ... i dont think i said that the macd is the reference point for determining the bottom (or did i?) ... the determination if the bottom has been reached is not in the macd ... its in the price itself ... AFTER the bottom has been reached .... since mine is a trend following system ... it just follows after prices have been closed at the end of the day ... which means the determination of the bottom is after the second (day) candle has been made ... which then means we can act on it only during the third day 

dont hesitate to ask again for more questions ..

question and answer: 2GO (11 MAY 2017)

question: Sir, okay na ba bumili ng 2go?

my reply: 

1.  2GO closed higher to 16.50 ... up 0.49%

2. the macd histogram is lower ...

3. resistance: 17.00

4. support: 15.80 ...

5. if i were a short term trend follower ... id wait muna ... pababa pa yun macd histogram ....

question and answer: BSC, JAS (08 MAY 2017)

question: Sir Shoyu i have added PA @59 . How about JAS and BSC sir?

my reply:

JAS:

1. JAS closed lower to 3.64 ...  down 0.55% ...

2. support: 3.56 ... 3.50 ...

3. the macd histogram is still below the 0 - horizontal ... it is lower ...

4. pareho pa den ang analysis ko since last time nag comment ako sa JAS:  "short term trend followers planning to enter JAS will have to wait first ... until the histogram is already rising (the macd histogram has to be below the 0 - horizontal) as well as the price is rising ..."

BSC:

1. BSC closed higher to 0.275 ...

2. resistance: 0.28 ...

3. the macd histogram is falling ...

4. maliit lang ang present range ni BSC ...0.24 - 0.30 ... nasa gitna sya ngayon ... pababa pa ang histogram .... short term trend followers planning to enter BSC will have to wait first ... until the histogram is already rising (the macd histogram has to be below the 0 - horizontal) as well as the price is rising ... 

* what is a "short term trend follower"

* these notes are good only for the next trading day ... and NOT for the subsequent trading days 

* these notes are mine alone ... and are for sharing with short-term trend followers

for more philippine stock market views and information please check:

FINANCE MANILA

STOCK TRADING IS A VERY SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY ... IT IS NOT SAFE FOR NEWBIES AND OLDIES ALIKE ... LOSING YOUR MONEY IS A REAL POSSIBILITY AT ALL TIMES!

click here for an explanation of the indicators ...  

click here for my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose.

question and answer: PA/PACIFICA, INC. (08 MAY 2017)

question: Sir shoyu any updates po sa PA. ready napoba?

my reply: 

1. PA closed higher to 0.59 ... up 5.36% ..

2. resistance: 0.60 ...  0.62 - 0.63 - 0.64 ...

3. the macd histogram is still below the 0 - horizontal ... but it is higher ...

4. short term trend followers na wala pang PA intending to buy into PA ... could buy at there levels ... 1/3 nung allocation for the stock (cutloss just below 0.55 .. or just below 0.52) ... and just add the remaining 2/3 as the price rises ...

* what is a "short term trend follower"

* these notes are good only for the next trading day ... and NOT for the subsequent trading days 

* these notes are mine alone ... and are for sharing with short-term trend followers

for more philippine stock market views and information please check:

FINANCE MANILA

STOCK TRADING IS A VERY SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY ... IT IS NOT SAFE FOR NEWBIES AND OLDIES ALIKE ... LOSING YOUR MONEY IS A REAL POSSIBILITY AT ALL TIMES!

click here for an explanation of the indicators ...  

click here for my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose.

questions and answer: ALCO, APL, BHI (06 MAY 2017)

question: Sir shoyu any updates on BHI and APL and Alco pls thanks

my answer:

BHI

1. BHI closed higher to 0.093 ... up 1.09% ...

2. the macd histogram is lower

3. if you have BHI .. hold lang .. sell when your stops are hit ...  if wala kang BHI ... nga-nga ka lang ... look for other stocks na lang .. mataas na macd histogram...


APL

1. APL closed lower to 0.046 ... down 2.13%

2. i cant determine the magnitude of the histogram 

3. if you have APL ... sell when your stops are hit ... if you dont have APL ... dont look now ... panget ... look for other stocks to trade na lang ...


ALCO

1. ALCO closed higher to 1.35 ... up 2.27% ...

2. the macd histogram is below the 0 - horizontal ... it is lower ...

3. if you intend to buy ALCO ... wait further still .. pababa pa histogram .. if you are a short term trend follower .... you must wait until the histogram is rising (below the 0 - horizonal) as well as the price before you enter a stock ...

good luck :)

question and answer: short term trend following and long term position trading .. (23 APR 2017)

from a Finance Manila reader this morning ...

question:

Hi Sir Shoyu

Am a long term here (ACR) . But buys when I think price is cheap. But using technique as a short term trend follower I entered @ 1.45 when MACD is higher at 0.01. I added again April 21 @ 1.53 when MACD is .02. Am I doing the right thing?

My long term holdings with ACR average 1.25

TIA


my reply:

a short term trend follower follows the cycle of the stock price .... when the macd is below the 0 - horizontal and it is going up na (as well as the price ) you start buying ... then sell when the price is lower (cutloss) or when it hits your trailing stops (when the price is higher which means profit ka ) ... one cycle lang .... buy low .. sell high ...

if you are a long term trader ... you wont mind the cycles .. basta buy ka lang ng buy ...

so either short term trend follower ka .. or a buy and hold long term trader .... you cant be both ...

if you want to be both ... make a distinction .. two positions ... one is for short term trend following ... one is for long term position trading ... then trade them separately ... wag paghaluin ...

when using the macd .. i dont look at the numbers ... just look at the positions of the lines .. if the macd HISTOGRAM is below the 0 - horizontal and is rising (as well as the price) .. yun .. start buying ako ... walang number numbers ...

ask lang if may tanong ka pa ...

good luck!

questions and answers: on mrc (07 APR 2017)

on facebook .. i was asked the folllowing yesterday ...

Sir, how do u decide to add on a stock even if the price seems already high? What factors do look at or ano po strategy gamit niyo? Thanks

my response:

i have no scientific explanation for this .... altho i have many unscientific ones ... first ... you may add on a stock that you already have a previous base on at a lower price .. my base is at 19plus ... second ... as long as your allocaton is not yet filled for the stock .. you may continue buying at higher prices .. i have only 1/3 of my budget for mrc filled .. so meron pa 2/3 ... third .... buy only at higher prices .. dont add when prices go low .. TANGA lang ang gumagawa nun ... fourth .. for as along as i feel na hindi pa tapos ang story ng isang stock for this particular cycle .. ok pa mag buy up .. and kahapon may disclosure pa na bago .... . which makes the next asm as my possible sell area ... .

stok tots: a question from a beginner (25 MAR 2017)

heres a question from a beginner ... and my response ...

OK Sir Shoyu, thanks for your great advice. Yun muna ang susundin ko for now.

Di talaga ko trend follower, I really have a little knowledge about stock trading. I didnt check my account for about 6 months since August. But i decided now na magbuy and sell ng stocks and not the long term way.

I also decided to learn more about stock trading.

Napakaraming charts to choose pero di ko alam ang best na dapat gamitin. So far ang lagi ko lang tinitignan is yung MACD, RSI, and Volume and the candle stick graph to follow the trend.

Any recommendation where should i start. Or anything na dapat ko unahin aralin para gumaling sa pag trade.

Thanks in advance so pagsagot.

P.S. I always check your Shoyu's Ramen House post and back read sometimes. I see a lot of people respect your advice and insights kaya sayo ko lagi magtatanong...

welcome to stock trading ..

im a trend follower .. so obviously what i say comes from a trend following perspective ...

i let the others tell about their systems .. 

pero masasabi ko lang ...

simple lang ang trading ... and for me the MACD will be it ...

kalokohan yan RSI ... pandadgdag lang yan sa indicators na di naman pakikinabangan ..

if you ask me .. just study the MACD ..

and hindi nga buong macd ginagamit ko .. yun histogram lang .. anyways ... yun lang ..

if you have further questions ... fire away! ..

good luck! 

stok tots: question on MRC (22 MAR 2017)

i got two pm's sa FM on MRC just now .. here is my response to one of the questions ...

Hi Sir Shoyu

Your comment on your blog uesterday , notice you have no mentioned about what price support and have many resistance level.

Do you mean this will be on a roll for a couple of days? Which is still safe to enter at this price?

Did not enter yesterday when price appreciation was already 5% thinking it would be up to about 8% up from previous price.

Thanks for your guidaance as a trend follower

walang price support kase seller na ako e .. when it is trending up ... resistance yung relevant sa mga trend followers ... they sell when their stops are hit .. or BUY more if the resistance is broken ..

i dont know where the price will go .. i just buy and hope for the best .. sell when my stops/cut losses are hit .. add when the price is rising .. until the time my budget for the stock is filled ... ganun lang ...

somebody asked me just now also on FM when is the time to buy .. ill quote na lang my answer to him ...

"i have a maximum of 2-3% of money on each stock .. exceptional na yung 10% .. so if you have more than 3% of your money on MRC .. if you are a trend follower ... i advise you NOT to add na ..

but if you still insist on adding ... you can buy anytime naman .. di ko naman alam kung tataas o bababa .. hahaha ... you may buy konti lang now if you want ... then wait ... if bumaba .. if you are a strict trend follower .. you SELL when your stops are hit! wait for the macd to be below the 0 - horizontal and when it is pointing up na to consider buying again ...

or .. you just stay put and just wait amd sell then your stops are hit .. and buy na lang ulet then the macd histogram is in the buying point ...

im not a manghuhula so i really dont know what will happen to each stock ...  "


i dont have any price targets so wala yun 5% or 8% na yan .. if it is time to buy .. BUY .. when it is time to sell .. SELL.

yun lang and good luck sa aten! 

question: what about pxp? (14 JULY 2016)

a question this morning from a finance manila reader:

HI Boss Shoyu

How do you find the chart of PXP? Still with uptrend? First time to enter a speculative stock. But willing to hold for longterm. Was able to enter on Jul 12 @ closing of 4.70

Thanks for sharing


my reply:

if your willing to hold pxp for the long term .. just be warned that you must consider your money in pxp as 0 na ... it is a speculative stock .. so di mo alam talaga ano mangyayari long term ... so you just say bye bye na sa pera mo ..

short term ... i think the west philippine sea/south china sea thing has already been inputted na sa price ... well baka meron pa in the coming days but it depends na sa sentiments ng mga tao ... so the chart really depends on where the people will trade pxp ...

the next play would be on what pxp will do .. will it start drilling na for oil or what? .. but thats for the next play .. it may do so .. kelan? ... ewan ko .. hahaha ...

ive day traded kahapon si pxp from 5.10 to 5.50/5.49 ... tama na sa akin yun .. wont go bak to pxp in the meantime ... kahapon lang kasi the reward to risk is too good to pass up kaya bumili ako sa open ... 

question and answer: MIC/MINERALES INDUSTRIAS CORP. (09 nov 2015)

i received this queston just a while ago ... yes .. im also shoyu_ramen of finance manila .. ;)

hi shoyu... it's me again. what do you think of MIC? are you still holding?do you have any TP since this stock has no more resistance?di ba, just let profits run is the best strategy here?thanks in advance!

 my reply:

i still have mic .. i bought it several breakouts ago ... i have no tp as always .. well if ur a trend follower .. u just follow .. so u sell when ur stops are hit .. yep .. let profits run ..but another option is to sell half of ur position if u want to protect profits na or there is another stock u want to fund .. still ur call (im not that strict on myself in following my rules) ..

question and answer: sir good day! pwede pa kaya pumasok sa DD. TIA (24 may 2014)

i got this question this morning via facebook ....

question:

sir good day! pwede pa kaya pumasok sa DD. TIA


my reply:

u can always buy any stok ... its up to ur risk tolerance .. if u can handle more risk .. then buy dd

question and answer: GTCAP (05 may 2014)

i got a question over the weekend from facebook about gtcap ..

(https://www.facebook.com/shingen.takeda.5015/posts/299655213530525?comment_id=300525650110148&offset=0&total_comments=2&notif_t=share_comment)


question:

(GTCAP) Closed right smack at your resistance. Still has legs for a a run at P885+? TIA


my reply:

ser ... honestly i have no idea as to what will happen next .... what i can only say is .. if i have gtcap at the moment ... ill just hold it ... and sell if my stops are hit ... if i dont have it .. ill just buy when it breaches the next resistance or just wait for the profit takers to sell it down ...

question and answer: 2014 stock picks; alpha (03 jan 2014)

question: 

ALPHA yung stock and yung thread na may nasabihan ka dati na FMer na wag tanung ng tanung kung bakit bumaba or magwhine or something, dapat bumili sya lalo na if he/she saw it was undervalued diba?

I checked ALPHA thread if yun nga yiun pero wala na, i was thinking baka dinelete mo yung posts mo and dinelete din nung na-advisean mo...

ALPHA is again going down, (OA na bagsak?) and I remember it as one of your monitored stock, Im thinking of taking a position...

Thanks!!!

Congrats on your PCKH!!!

Pa-share naman ng stock picks mo for 2014, your 2 2013 stock picks were goodies...hehe...


My Answer:

di ko na maalala kung alpha yung stok na yun .. pero i remember writing it ... di ko lang sure kung na delete ko ...

yep .. bumaba na sya .. i bot some nung bumigay yung 20 pesos .. sa 19+ .. kala ko hanggang dun na lang .. well .. anyways .. ill buy somemore if di na sya volatile .. 

wala nga ako stok pick for 2014 .. tingin ko kasi di pa tapos ang bagsak ng market .. mahal pa din kasi ... short term trades lang ako siguro sa 1st Quarter ... altho yung mga speculatives ... always pwede sakyan basta mabilisan lang ...

pckh wait ko developments .. i may add a few more shares ... depende kung ano gagawin ng max ...

pero definitely ill post my stok picks sa blog at sa fm thread ... pero as of now ... wala talaga ... meron ako hawak pero blues and konti din lang ... agi .. mbt ... im thinking of mer which i posted na sa blog ko .. pero stok pick for the year .. wala pa talaga .. 

question and answer: jfc (15 aug 2013)

question:

Good evening sir,

Want to ask jfc kung magpupull back pa ba,?at what is the price to buy?

Tnx in advance

question and answer: bhi (13 aug 2013)

question:

Hinog na ba bhi for you? Double dragonfly doji seems like a reversal sign for me, what do you think?

Thank you very much.

question and answer: what do u think? (19 jul 2013)

question:

Hi xxx, Im currently looking at MBT,EW and MEG as possible buys as i feel they still have good valuations compared to peers, would you agree sir? 

questi0n and answer: from facebook (10 jul 2013)

question:

Hi Boss, I'm an avid follower of your blogs.. Have read all your indicators/habits/decision making stuffs.. just wanted to ask where i can attend seminar or get someone who can teach me about technical analysis? 

i wanted it to be as simple as yours..

becuase currently I already have 20% realized loss of my capital.. i'm only at my 2nd month in the market thats a huge blow for me.. that's why i wanted to make it right this time so i can recover everything that ive lost

btw, JFC is one of my favorite stocks thats why im reading your blogs

my reply:


tnx for ur kind words ...

i myself have not attended any of those "for-pay" technical analysis seminars .. the only formal sit in seminar i attended were those conducted by citiseconline which they regularly schedule for their clients .. the ones i attended were conducted by mr. juanis barredo .. the analysis i do in my blog i just gathered from the books and online articles i have read ... it works for me and my style of trading ... the seminars now that we have in the market are mainly basic and comprehensive .. basic and comprehensive in the sense that they are geared for those who are still uninitiated and are still looking for their own trading style ... so these seminars are ok ... i have nothing against them ... as for seminars on my kind of technical analysis ... im afraid u wont find anything pa being conducted ... i am not conducting "seminars" like the ones now in the market ... but u can always chat me for stock market questions in yahoo messenger and skype if u want or just leave ur messages here in facebook .. my ym is: xxxxx@yahoo.com .... my skype name is: xxxxx ...

i have jfc also .. but im mainly featuring jfc in the blog just to illustrate my trading style .. one can just follow how i trade jfc using the macd histogram and stochastics indicators ... and apply these in trading other stocks .. ganun lang ..

tnx also for reading the blog ...

great trades! good times!

question and answer: re: journals (01 jun 2013)

xxx wrote:sir i saw on your blog that you have posted this inquiry sir. somehow i felt honored na na feature sa blog niyo yung tanong ko. thanks.  

sir if i may ask, kung ok lang? Meron po ba kayong ginagamit for tracking your trades, like an excel file or something. I learned kasi na one must track his trades, wag yun basta basta lang. If meron sir pwede ba ako maka hingi for a copy?  thanks a lot sir for your time reading my inquiry again. godbless!

to track my trades?

everyday my broker sends me an email attaching an electronic copy of my ledger which contains my trades .. depending on my request .. they send me a summary of my trades of the previous day, the past week, month or the past year ... it also contains my open positions (stocks i hold in my portfolio)

they also send me a copy of my invoice by mail .. so i have a hard copy of my trades on a daily basis .. these i keep for record purposes ...

i dont keep a profit/loss record of my trades .. i dont keep a running score of my trades ... altho it can easily be made if i want to based on my ledger ...

i dont intend to write a book about my trades .. nor feature them in my blog .. nor announce to everybody how much of a genius i am in trading by keeping proof of how successful i am in the market ...

maintaining a detailed record of trades and assessing them thru writing journals have been recommended by gurus in books and articles .. and i agree that they are helpful and a good tool for traders especially newbies .. but it is not for me .. i want to keep my trading simple and i want to carry just enough garbage/baggage in my mind to trade the next day ... my posts in my blog i think are already enough and serve my purpose ...

thanks again for reading my blog ...

good luck