what i read today: How to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading (13 apr 2014)
Every
forecast of a statistical model can be wrong. Every trading judgment
is fallible. If you have a 50% hit rate on your trades and you trade
once a day, on average you're going to have an occasion in which you
lose every day for a week during a trading year. That doesn't mean
you're in a slump; it doesn't mean you should change what you do. It's
going to happen and you can mentally prepare yourself--and size yourself
in such a way that five consecutive losing days won't take you out of
the game.
The
goal is not to eliminate losses--that would require omniscience.
Rather, the goal is to anticipate losses so that you're never
surprised, never overwhelmed, never thrown onto the back foot. True
confidence comes, not from believing that you must be right, but from
knowing that you can survive and even thrive if you're dead wrong.
How to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/04/how-to-deal-with-uncertainty-of-trading.html
