Monday, March 11, 2019

would i buy this stock now? (11 MAR 2019)


***i am not a day trader
***follow me at finance manila

* these notes are good only for the next trading day ... and NOT for the subsequent trading days
* these notes are mine alone ... and are for sharing with short-term trend followers

i buy stocks only when they fulfill two conditions:

- their macd histograms are below the macd 0 - line and
- their current prices are higher than their most recent bottoms ...

so .. would i buy these stocks now?

Banks

1. BDO - no ... the macd histogram is above the 0 - line na ... i only buy stocks whose histogram is still below the 0 - line ....
2. BPI - no ... while the macd histogram is below the 0 - line already ... the price may still go down ... wait lang muna ako ...

Conglomerates

3. AC - no .. while the macd histogram is already below the 0 - line ... pwede pa siya bumaba pa ... wait muna ako ...
4. AEV - no ... while the macd histogram is already below the 0 - line ... the price is still making lower registers  ... wait muna ako ...
5. AGI - no ... the macd histogram is already above the 0 - line ...
6. SM - no ... while the macd histogram is already below the 0 - line ... the price is still making lower registers  ... wait muna ako ...
7. SMC - yes ... cutloss just below 168.60 (example: 168.00) ...

Consumer

8. FB - no ... the macd histogram is above the 0 - line already .... sa sell side na dapat ako ...
9. JFC - no  ... the macd histogram is still above the 0 - line ...

Power

10. AP  - no ... while the macd histogram is already below the 0 - line ... the price has not yet found its bottom ... wait pa muna ako ...
11. MER - no ... the macd histogram is still above the 0 - line ...
12. PHEN - yes ... cutloss just below 1.22 (example: 1.20) ...

Properties

13. ALI - yes ... cutloss just below 42.5 (example: 42.00) ...
14. SMPH - yes ... cutloss just below 37.30 (example: 37.00) ...

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A VERY SHORT COURSE ON HOW I TRADE:

*my buy criteria: i buy when the following happens:
1. the macd histogram is below the 0 - line
2. if the current price is higher than the most recent price bottom
3. i buy on breakout ONLY when adding to an ALREADY EXISTING position

*when do i sell? i sell when:
1. i cutloss just below the most recent bottom
2. my trail stop is hit (this means that my position is already net positive)

*what stocks do i buy?
1. index stocks
2. stocks that have a current story as disclosed in the edge website ...

*what do i do when i start buying a stock?
1. when i buy, i buy in tranches .... when i see a stock fulfilling my buy criteria .... i initially buy 1/3 or 1/4 of my allocation for a particular stock ... then i wait and observe ...
2. on subsequent days ... when the price of the stock advances... i add 1/3 of my allocation ....
3. i add my last 1/3 allocation when the stock advances some more ...

*what i dont?
http://1kagemusha.blogspot.com/2012/03/what-i-dont.html.

what is a "short term trend follower"