a filipino trend follower's blog: September 2015

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

stok tots: on CPM/Century Peak Metals Holdngs Corp. (29 sept 2015)

over the weekend .. a member of the finance manila forum sent me a private message asking about my tots on cpm .. (century peak metals) ...

its more than a day already since i sent him my reply so i guess its ok to share this na with you ...

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hi XXX ...

2nd Q of cpm is better than 1st Q 2015 .. but overall .. 1H 2015 for cpm is still a loss ... revenue is down 90% .. income is down 170% ...

the income for 2Q is not even from its nickel production .. it came from other income ... the group’s other income pertains to Incentives generated from sale of nickel ore and sale of certain type of vehicles by a Subsidiary (it only made one shipment for the semester)

nickel prices and cpm's production should improve for the 2nd sem if anything fundamental is expected to happen to improve its income ..

i wont be buying cpm if id be using its 1H 2015 fundamentals

technically .. cpm's price is up 25% from about 1 month ago .. and macd and sts are up ...

if ever im thinking of buying cpm at the moment .. id buy it based on technicals ...

but it is really a speculative buy ...

id buy small first .. using 1/4 or 1/3 of my budget for cpm ... set my cut loss .. and add only if cpm continues to go up .. until ive used up my budget for cpm ...

resistance is @77 ... so id be buying cpm if it breaches 77 and closes above it ... i wont be buying at 75 since it may not break 77 and thus start going down .. but id buy if 77 is broken and cpm closes above it ..

AGAIN ... this is a speculative buy since there are no fundamentals to speak of at the moment .. unless 3Q is so beautiful ...

but personally ... i wont be touching cpm

good luck ..

chart monitor: AGI/ALLIANCE GLOBAL GROUP, INC. (29 sept 2015)

agi chart as of 28 sept 2015

(click on the chart to enlarge)

remarks:

what i read today: The Difference Between a Trading Set-Up and a Market Prediction (24 sept 2015)

http://trader-moe.com/trading-setup-vs-market-prediction/

stok tots: on buying stocks, stock prices and "gurus" (24 sept 2015)

stok tots ...

on buying stoks ...

why do people buy stoks?

people buy stoks on the expectation that other people will buy stocks at higher prices .. so that upon reaching higher stock prices ... stocks will be promptly sold thereby gaining trading profits

why do stock prices move up?

when people buy stocks at higher prices on the thought that other people will buy stocks at even higher prices ... and that there are sellers willing to sell at higher prices

reasons like: a company has good fundamentals ... that there is good news to be disclosed ... the stock is undervalued ... these have no actual bearing on why stock prices move up ... everything is really hinged on peoples sentiments and expectations ...

"gurus" ...

"pretend gurus" should be seen for what they really are ...mga manloloko ... who foretell stock price movements as if they really know what they are talking about ... but thats ok ... we know naman that there are snakes in every jungle ...

... just that i have no respect for people who really think there really is "something" to predict (altho this "hula" may turn out to be right later on) ... when these are simply hula based on pseudo scientific voodoo mumbo jumbo ...

but there are "gurus" who really believe in what they are telling their "followers" .. well they are manlolokos who do not know that they are manloloko .. they are simply fools

how to explain that there really are people who make money in trading (and one does not even need to be right in every trade .. just be net positive overall) ? ... the reason is they have the long term odds on their side and malakas ang loob nila to actually make bets by trading .. and these also include "gurus" (the pretend variety and the foolish ones)