when do i buy? - 1

i buy when ...

1. prices near support
2. prices breach resistance
3. indicators (macd, sts) say the trend is up with maximum upside possibility and minimum downside risk
4. a speculative buy opportunity presents itself 

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


for version 2 of this post see: trading tactics

back to: my trading rules

WEB 2011

selected stock report for the day: WEB


assets: 3.39 billion pesos
liabilities: 229.33 million pesos
equity: 3.158 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 1.11 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 900.67 million pesos
retained earnings: 1.51 billion pesos

revenue 2011: 1.17 billion pesos
revenue 2010: 1.04 billion pesos
% change: 12.04%

net income 2011: 915.7 million pesos
net income 2010: 629.0 million pesos
% change:45.58%

last closing price (16 march 2012): 16.16 pesos
earnings per share: .73 pesos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 22.26x
book value per share: 2.5 pesos
price/book value: 6.46
return on equity: 29.00%
return on assets: 27.00%
net income margin: 78.60%

current ratio: 8.48
debt-to-equity: 0.07


source of basic data: Annual Report 2011

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-1757_WEB.pdf

remarks:

1. a 20% stock dividend will go exdate 30 april 2012.
2. a 10 centavo cash dividend went exdate 27 feb 2012.
3. web's trailing p/e of 22.26x is quite expensive for my taste.
4. its net income is growing at an amazing compounded growth rate of 42% per annum! (from 2007) and i think they can maintain their current dividend for the next 3-4 years.
5. fantastic roe and roa
6. superb net income margin of 78.6% (the web annual report mistakenly wrote 60%, the previous year's nim)
7. web is liquid.
8. low debt.
9. web is not a trader's stock. price is not that volatile for short term players to profit from.
10. web is potentially an ideal regular dividend paying stock for buy and hold investors.

today's log (15 mar 2012)

sold xyz

bot mno

raising more cash for more buying

today's log (14 mar 2012)

sold some pnx

bot initial web position

bot some abc for speculation purposes

added a few more xxxy

The Ninja Stock Monitor - SM Investments Corporation (13 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


13 March 2012 closing prices

sm (sm investments)

c: 659 (+)
s: 631 (intraday low); 625
r: 677
vol: average
dmi: +/17.4(+); buy signal
macd: > 0; buy signal
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 60.62(+)
sts: 79.95(+)
rem: nice price action ... dmi and macd gave buy signals ...rsi and sts approaching overbot territory ... adjust stops ... monitor closely ... ready to sell

today's log (13 mar 2012)

added a few more fdc

sold make

today's log (12 mar 2012)

bot some stock zzz
sold some make

The Ninja Stock Monitor (11 mar 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks
these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


9 March 2012 closing prices

agi (alliance global)

c: 12.10 (+)
s: 11.96 (intraday low), 11.50
r:  12.20; 12.24
vol:-
dmi: +/29.09(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 69.96 (+)
sts: 83.94 (+)
rem: agi still doing good; short term uptrend ... 12.20 waiting to be breached ... altho still around overbought levels.

glo (globe telecoms)

c: 1192 (+)
s: 1188; 1150
r:  1193; 1200
vol:+
dmi: +/9.14(-)
macd: > 0; buy signal
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 54.87(+)
sts: 46.02(+)
rem: macd buy signal; just monitor ...


marc (marcventures)

c: 3.19 (-)
s: 3.12; 3.0
r:  3.3
vol:-
dmi: +/40.87(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 70.66 (-)
sts: 87.28 (+)
rem: red candle after doji on a short term uptrend @ overbot levels ... does not look good ... continue monitoring ..

mwide (megawide)

c: 12.88 (+)
s: 12.5; 12.12
r:  12.98/13
vol:-
dmi: +/43.83(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 67.47. (+)
sts: 77.55 (+)
rem: start monitoring ... prepare for entry ..

scc (semirara mining)

c: 234(higher)
s: 230
r:  240
vol: average
dmi: +/19.91(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 68.07(+)
sts: 94.71 (+)
rem: strong price movement; trending up; 240 res waiting to be breached
 
secb (security bank)

c: 133.20 (+)
s: 130 (intraday low)
r:  record high ... no res
vol: average
dmi: +/39.17(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 69.82(+)
sts: 85.66 (+)
rem: trading well .. highest close ever... monitor for entry

sm (sm investments)

c: 640 (+)
s: 640 (intraday low); 625
r: 642 (intraday high)
vol: -
dmi: -/18.65(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 53.05(+)
sts: 51.85 (unchanged)
rem: continue to monitor closely

a question about pnx (10 march 2012)

i just received the following inquiry from a member of the finance manila stock market forum about the possible dilutive effects of the proposed follow on offering by pnx ...

need your expertise
nalilito pa po ako sa FOO. ano difference nya sa 2PO at SRO?
This is dilutive di ba, so negative impact sa market price?

below was my response:

wehehe ... im not an expert and i dont claim to be one ... i only have opinions.

so here is my opinion:

an foo is an offering following an initial offering. in which case both an sro and a 2po are foos.

a 2po is an offering of primary (new) shares. proceeds go to the company.

a 2po maybe:

1. for everybody (public and shareholders ... like an ipo)
2. private placement (waiver of stock rights by shareholders)

an sro could be primary (new) or secondary (treasury shares or selling shareholders).

2pos and sros (primary) are dilutive. all things being equal ... short term ... price theoretically/rationally should go down to maintain the p/e ratio prior to the declaration of the offering. but short term the market is not rational. so who knows how the market would react wrt price: either ...

1. up - market sees new money to be good for expansion long term ...
2. down - market rationally (hurray! ) adjusts to p/e prior to declaration of offering short term
3. down bigtime - market irrationaly adjusts to old p/e ... short sellers pushing it down more than what is rationally appropriate.

but thats immediate/short term.

long term:

1. new money means company saves on interest they would have to pay had they borrowed money instead
2. new money means expansion
3. new money should translate to higher revenues ... higher profits ... thus p/e adjusts (e goes up... price goes up higher than old price ... p goes back up to reflect old p/e).

with respect to pnx ...

1. divs happen before foo
2. divs mean dividend play prior to exdate
3. div play would weigh more prior to exdate ... price effect of dilution may happen after exdate

as with all opinions ... they could be wrong ... my opinion included

tnx for ur question.

goodtimes!

today's log (9 mar 2012)

(for records purposes only)

sold all stok xxx
bot stok yyy