The Ninja Stock Monitor

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


19 December 2011 closing prices
 
agi (alliance global)
c: 10.28 (lower)
s: 10.24 (intraday low/50DMA), 10.14, 10 (psych support)
r:  10.36 (intraday high)
vol: +
dmi: +/17.99(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: - (down)
rsi: 45.08 (lower)
sts: 40.53 (lower)
rem: immediate term downtrend ... just monitor

glo (globe telecom)
c: 999 (unchanged)
s: 996 (intraday low)
r:  1000 (psych res)
vol: -
dmi: -/31.17(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (up)
rsi: 58.48 (unchanged)
sts: 97.84 (higher/overbought level)
rem: breakout of 1k still possible. however ... doji candle .. overbought sts and low volume indicates possibility also of momentum losing steam and immediate term top. monitor tomorrow's candle for indications of future trend.

pgold (puregold)
c: 18.20 (higher)
s: 17.66 (intraday low), 17.50, 17
r:  18.90 (intraday high), 19 (psych res)
vol: -
dmi:
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: + (up)
rsi: 77.18 (higher)
sts: 84.79 (higher) overbought level
rem: breached 18 on run up; several crosses done ... mostly @18.20 ... candle indicates further upward action may cool down for a while. sell half of position? adjust trailing stop. note: next time dont watch tv while trading.

scc (semirara mining)
c: 214 (lower)
s: 214 (intraday low), 213.50 (200DMA)
r:  216 (intraday high)
vol: average
dmi: +/17.21(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: - (down)
rsi: 53.63 (lower)
sts: 70.83 (lower/sell signal)
rem: doji (friday) .. red candle (today) ... sts sell signal .. > indicates price softening .. continue monitoring

secb (security bank)
c: 96.40 (higher)
s: 95.85 (intraday low/20DMA)
r:  96.6 (intraday high), 97
vol: average
dmi: +/33.59(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (up)
rsi: 58.06 (higher)
sts: 47.1 (lower)
rem: continue monitoring

SCC 3Q 2011

i had been going over my 3rd quarter 2011 worksheet this weekend. id like to share some figures taken/computed from the 3Q 2011 financial statement of semirara mining corporation (scc):


assets: 33.8 billion pesos
liabilities: 19.9 billion pesos
equity: 13.9 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 6.3 billion pesos
retained earnings (unappropriated): 6.24 billion pesos (assuming appropriated retained earnings remains @700 million pesos)

revenue 3Q 2011: 21.45 billion pesos
revenue 3Q 2010: 16.9 billion pesos
% change: 26.98%

net income 3Q 2011: 5.196 billion pesos
net income 3Q 2010: 3.212 billion pesos
% change: 61.74%

last closing price (16 december 2011): 215 pesos
earnings per share (annualized): 19.45 pesos
price-earnings ratio: 11x
book value per share: 39.20 pesos
price/book value: 5.48
return on equity: 49.6%
return on assets: 20.5%
net income margin: 24.22%

current ratio: 1.70
debt-to-equity: 1.42


source of basic data: Quarterly Report for the period ended 30 September 2011

http://www2.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2011/SCC_17Q_Sep2011.pdf


remarks:

1. a 10 peso cash dividend was given in may 2011.
2. if a cash dividend were to be given today, unappropriated retained earnings can cover a maximum of 17.52 pesos per share.
3. there is enough cash to cover the cash dividend.
4. or ... a maximum of 1,752% stock dividend may be given instead (in 2004, scc gave a 900% stock dividend to shareholders).
5. a 10 shares-to-1 share stock split would make scc at the same price level as other mining shares like px, at, nikl (long shot possibility).

reply to a pm

recently, a member of the finance manila stock market forum sent me a pm sharing his recent stock picks. id like to share here my reply to him:

hi xxx ...

ive started to review my positions in preparation for the coming 2012:


ive added some semirara .. while citisec expects lower 4Q 2011 income for scc .. im positioning for the dividends next year... in 2011 scc gave 10 pesos per share ..


based on 3Q reports .. scc has retained earnings enough to give a max of 20 pesos per share with the corresponding cash to back it up. but im not expecting a 20 peso cash div. minimum is 10 pesos .. max is 15. what im hoping for is a big stock dividend ... they can give a max of 2000% !!! based on their retained earnings .. in 2004 scc gave a 900% stock div ... the past 2 years scc declared cash divs month of may


ill be buying my initial lcb position in the coming days ... 

i bought my initial agi position last week. its 2012 prospective earnings should be boosted by its resorts world operation.


my dark horse stock is fjp prince ... im not recommending it (as i mentioned before .. i dont do recommendations). im just sharing with u what im looking at just as u are sharing with me what u are looking at.


fjp mainly is into the call center/bpo business. its p/e is around 10x .. it gave cash divs already the past 2 years (month of august --- u see i plan way way in advance).


it earned a big windfall early this year when it sold its land in batangas to jg summit .. so its retained earnings went up so much, 2x its capital stock. its book value after that is now 4 pesos and its p/e due to that one time income is around 1x. i bought it for a possible dividend play like semirara.

im leaving enough cash for any opportunistic short term trade.

the links i post mainly reflect my bias. ull see my inclination is more on trading psychology. anyways im glad u find time to read them.


i wish u well in ur trades.

until next time ... enjoy the rest of the weekend

xxx

The Ninja Stock Monitor

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


9 December 2011 closing prices

    

agi (alliance global)

c: 11 (higher)
s: 10.88 (previous res), 10.66 (intraday low), 10.50 (psych support)
r:  11.04 (intraday high), 11.24

vol: +  

dmi: +/17.35(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: + (up)
rsi: 63.57 (higher)
sts: 82.66 (higher)
rem: breached res of 10.88 and sitting @psych res of 11. 11.04 turned bak again the assault to higher levels. bot bak initial position. to add 2nd tranche if it continues to trend higher.

glo (globe telecom) 

c: 950 (lower)
s: 950 (intraday low), 943)
r:  965 (intraday high), 972 (previous low)

vol: -  

dmi: -/31.54(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: - (down)
rsi: 45.42 (lower)
sts: 74.09 (lower/sell signal)
rem: gapped lower @opening. the attempt to rise was not successful and closed at the day's low. monitor closely for possible initial positon entry in the coming days.

scc (semirara mining)

c: 213 (higher)
s: 205.6 (intraday low), 204
r:  213.20 (200 DMA) 213.4 (intraday high), 215

vol: +  

dmi: +/10.32(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (up)
rsi: 54.32 (higher)
sts: 27.64 (higher/buy signal)
rem: sts gave a buy signal on big volume; waiting for the macd buy signal; must close higher than 200DMA; another green candle should strengthen confirmation of the change in trader mood  (thursday previous was a doji, then a friday green candle)

secb (security bank)

c: 96.65 (higher)
s: 96 (intraday low/20DMA), 95
r:  97 (intraday high), 98.50

vol: even   

dmi: +/37.19(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: - (down)
rsi: 60.34 (higher)
sts: 51.21 (higher)
rem: secb is being supported by the 20DMA; a close above 97.95 should be good.

The Ninja Stock Monitor

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


6 December 2011 closing prices

    

agi (alliance global)

c: 10.62 (lower)
s: 10.58 (intraday low), 10.50 (psych support)
r:  10.87(200DMA), 11 (psych res ), 11.04 (intraday high) 

vol: -   

dmi: +/14.4(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: - (declined)
rsi: 56.74 (lower)
sts: 79.66 (lower/sell signal)
rem: bad opening ... stops got hit ... sold entire position ... taking a rest from trading agi for a while ... continue monitoring

The Ninja Stock Monitor

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


5 December 2011 closing prices

    

agi (alliance global)

c: 10.88 (higher)
s: 10.70 (intraday low), 10.50 (psych support)
r:  11 (psych res ), 11.04 (intraday high) 

vol: even  

dmi: +/13.6(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: + (increasing)
rsi: 63.57 (higher)
sts: 86.55 (higher)
rem: breached last friday's intraday res of 10.82 and pierced thru 11 pesos before closing @10.88, a little over the 200DMA. just hovering above the 200DMA should be good for the immediate term. sts is already at overbought levels tho rsi is still not worrisome. taking profits from half of the position since entry wont hurt while letting the rest of the position run. just adjust stops. 

some thoughts on mmi

last week saw the share price of mariwasa siam holdings (pse symbol: mmi) shoot-up from 1.10 (24 november 2011 closing price) to 3.70 (2 december closing price).

it posted the more than 3-fold share price increase (3 consecutive limit up days) after it disclosed during the trading session of 28 november that its board of directors approved a reorganization of the mariwasa group and that a special stockholders meeting will be held 12 january 2012 to approve the reorg plan.

maybe mmi is just catching up on the recent wave of limit-up plays.

but a closer look at the reorg plan and stockholders meeting agenda may provide a speculative justification for the price surge (admittedly on negligible volume).

- the reorg will erase the 516 million deficit from its balance sheet
- pay off a portion of mmi's debt via shares of mmi's subsidiary mariwasa-siam ceramics (msci)
- return to the shareholders of the capital surplus generated by the reduction in par value via proportional distribution of msci's remaining shares.

the 3 actions point to:

- mmi may already pay dividends from future unappropriated retained earnings
- aside from directly owning mmi shares, stockholders will now directly own msci shares (a defacto property dividend?)
- possible future pse-listing of msci shares (this is pure speculation with no basis whatsoever).

of the 6 stock market forums im monitoring (not facebook-based) only 1 has so-far devoted a separate thread to mmi but still with no discussion on the reorg and its possible implications. maybe because mmi is an unknown, highly illiquid, thus not a punter's stock.  

which may indicate that no one is really seriously looking at mmi except for a handful of players with a liking for illiquid and unknown issues. and thus last week's price action may just be a fluke. however, the special stockholders' meeting is still on the 12th of january. many things could still take place between now and then. who knows? me, im just a kibitzer curious if this coming week we will see another series of limit up closings for mmi.  

The Ninja Stock Monitor

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


2 December 2011 closing prices

    

agi (alliance global)

c: 10.68 (higher)
s: 10.58 (intraday low), 10.50 (psych support)
r: 10.82 (intraday high), 10.87 (200DMA), 11 (psych res )
vol: - (below 5DMA)

dmi: +/12.14(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: + (increasing/buy signal)
rsi: 60.15 (higher)
sts: 69.91 (higher)
rem: broke thru 10.60 res. breached previous intraday res of 10.70 and went to as high as 10.82 but retreated to close@10.68. macd buy signal given ... breaking the 200DMA should be a good sign. 

  

glo (globe telecoms)

c: 990 (higher)
s: 970 (intraday low/20DMA), 955
r: 1000
vol: even (5DMA)

dmi: -/29.93(+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (increasing)
rsi: 57.65 (higher)
sts: 68.46 (lower)
rem: continue monitoring

scc (semirara )

c: 210 (higher)
s: 207 (most recent bottom)
r: 213 (20/200 DMA), 215
vol: - (below 5DMA)

dmi: +/10.1(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (increasing)
rsi: 49.87 (higher)
sts: 11.11 (higher)
rem:continue monitoring, sts may give a buy signal in the coming days

secb (security bank)

c: 96.75 (higher)
s: 95.50 (intraday low), 94.30 (20DMA)
r: 98.50 (most recent intraday peak)
vol: - (below 5DMA)

dmi: +/41(-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:  neutral
rsi: 61.82 (higher)
sts: 59.4 (higher)
rem: continue monitoring

The Ninja Stock Monitor (1 dec 2011)

selected technical indicators of some PSE-listed stocks
these are just my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
dmi/adx: directional movement index/average directional index
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
(+): higher
(-): lower


1 December 2011 closing prices

    

agi (alliance global)

c: 10.58 (higher)
s: 10.22 (intraday low), 10.14
r: 10.60, 10.66 (intraday high), 10.70 (most recent peak/intraday)
vol: + (above 5DMA)

dmi: +/11.19(+; gave a buy signal today)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction: + (increasing)
rsi: 58.32 (higher)
sts: 53.56 (higher)
rem: for a brief while there agi breached 10.60 and went on to 10.66 ... threatening to go past the 10.70 resistance only to be sold down to 10.58. good volume. macd histogram still below 0 but there is a possibility of it giving a buy signal in the coming days. the 200 DMA is at the 10.85-10.90 level. monitor intently.