Sunday, December 11, 2011

reply to a pm

recently, a member of the finance manila stock market forum sent me a pm sharing his recent stock picks. id like to share here my reply to him:

hi xxx ...
ive started to review my positions in preparation for the coming 2012:

ive added some semirara .. while citisec expects lower 4Q 2011 income for scc .. im positioning for the dividends next year... in 2011 scc gave 10 pesos per share ..

based on 3Q reports .. scc has retained earnings enough to give a max of 20 pesos per share with the corresponding cash to back it up. but im not expecting a 20 peso cash div. minimum is 10 pesos .. max is 15. what im hoping for is a big stock dividend ... they can give a max of 2000% !!! based on their retained earnings .. in 2004 scc gave a 900% stock div ... the past 2 years scc declared cash divs month of may

ill be buying my initial lcb position in the coming days ... 
i bought my initial agi position last week. its 2012 prospective earnings should be boosted by its resorts world operation.

my dark horse stock is fjp prince ... im not recommending it (as i mentioned before .. i dont do recommendations). im just sharing with u what im looking at just as u are sharing with me what u are looking at.

fjp mainly is into the call center/bpo business. its p/e is around 10x .. it gave cash divs already the past 2 years (month of august --- u see i plan way way in advance).

it earned a big windfall early this year when it sold its land in batangas to jg summit .. so its retained earnings went up so much, 2x its capital stock. its book value after that is now 4 pesos and its p/e due to that one time income is around 1x. i bought it for a possible dividend play like semirara.
im leaving enough cash for any opportunistic short term trade.
the links i post mainly reflect my bias. ull see my inclination is more on trading psychology. anyways im glad u find time to read them.

i wish u well in ur trades.
until next time ... enjoy the rest of the weekend