What works best for most investors is to not be predictive at all. Instead, be reactive, at least with your nest-egg money.
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I work with a few other money managers who use this scary thing called "math" to help follow the trends of the markets. What the best quantitative tactical-asset managers have been able to do for my clients is, in fact, ride the markets most of the way up, while ducking away from most of the downside in corrections. They're not perfect of course, but they tend to beat both mutual fund managers and the passive indexes.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-market-predictions-react-instead-2013-12-19
