stok tots: ltg/tdy (04 nov 2012)

LT GROUP/TDY 3Q 2012

assets: 115.5 billion pesos
liabilities: 50.0 billion pesos
equity: 65.5billion pesos

revenue 2012 3Q: 28.8 billion pesos
net income 2012 3Q: 5.7 billion pesos

last closing price (31 oct 2012): 11.50 pesos
earnings per share:  63.43 centavos
trailing price-earnings ratio: 18.13 x
book value per share: 5.45 pesos
price/book value: 2.11
return on equity: 34.92%
return on assets: 19.74%
net income margin: 27.40%
current ratio: 1.65
debt-to-equity: 0.77

source of basic data: Unaudited Interim Income Statement, LT GROUP, Inc. (Jan-Sept 2012)

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-7881_TDY.pdf


remarks:

1. no. of shares used in computing for the pe/eps : 11.981 billion shares = 8.981 billion shares + 3 B shares (09 aug 2012 BOD meeting)
2. 10+ trailing p/e is already comparable to other holding companies
3. return on assets and return on capital are quite high .. implying efficient use of assets and stockholders' money
4. net income margin is also quite impressive
5. lt group is quite liquid ..
6. debt to equity ratio is quite low (current liabilities/equity)
7. it is assumed that the figures submitted are net of pal's

im quite impressed with lt g's 3Q 2012 figures

the emperor's new clothes: tanduay holdings after it becomes lt group (05 sept 2012)

i was in a buffet dinner two fridays ago with some friends from finance manila and during our discussion on mergers and acquisitions .. the topic of tdy was brought up (btw ... rfm was also thoroughly discussed) ...one of the attendees asked whether tdy is already expensive or is it still undervalued considering the kapitan's various company assets said to be folded into tdy  (lt group post-asset infusion). the m&e expert present said that tdy was still undervalued (tdy closed @12.72 that friday) altho he did not mention his valuation of lt group) ... i said then that with the max. authorized capital stock that tdy is planning for lt group (25 B shares max) and the announced assets that will be supposedly folded into tdy ... the price of tdy is already too high ... altho i told him that i have to study again the disclosures so far posted in the pse website until that day …

with the recent disclosure: http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-6382_TDY.pdf ... im making these bak of the bus tiket calculations just as an exercise …

1. 2012 net income

income before income tax: 3.1 B pesos

provision for income tax: 0.6 B pesos

net income: 2.5 B (1^st half 2012)

net income annualized: 5.0 B

2. total number of shares of lt group:

3.981 B shares (as of 4 sept 2012) +

5 B shares (29 may 2012 BOD meeting) +

3 B shares (09 aug 2012 BOD meeting)

= 11.981 B shares (prospective)

3. 2012 estimated eps of lt group:

5.0 B pesos / 11.981 B shares

eps = .41733 centavos / share

4. estimated price of lt group at different p/e ratios:

at 10 x p/e = 10 x .41733 = 4.17

at 15 x p/e = 15 x .41733 = 6.26

at 20 x p/e = 20 x .41733 = 8.35

at 30 x p/e = 30 x .41733 = 12.52

so at 11.68 (closing price as of 4 sept 2012) tdy is trading at 28x 2012 estimated income ...

lets see at what price the coming share offerings of lt group will be set ;)

The Ninja Stock Monitor (31 aug 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

31 aug 2012 closing prices 

aba (abacus consolidated resources)

c: .76 (+)

s: .74 (intraday low)
r:  .79 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 47.21(+)
sts: 25.02(+)

rem: macd indicators are quite ideal ... but still no macd buy signal but maybe coming soon ... just monitor ... add a few more if 1.00 is breached?

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 11.78 (+)
s: 11.62 (intraday low)
r:  11.80 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 58.64(+)
sts: 91.5(-)

rem: sts pointing south ... histogram still positive but monitor carefully ... lighten up?

pip (pepsi)

c: 3.58 (+)
s: 3.51 (intraday low); 3.50
r:  3.59 (intraday high); 3.60; 3.65
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 66.56(+)
sts:80.18(+)

rem: 3.60 is a tough barrier to breach ...whats good is that no macd buy signal yet ... just monitor

tdy (tanduay holdings)

c: 11.92 (-)
s: 11.48 (intraday low);11
r:  12.36 (intraday high); 13
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 66.16(-); sell signal
sts:48(-)

rem: hammer ... while monitored indicators and price action are not optimistic ... 11.48 could be the bottom for the meantime ... monitor next candlestik 

web (philweb)

c: 16.94 (-)
s: 16.52 (intraday low)
r:  17.00 (intraday high)
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 75.81(-)
sts:96.58(-)

rem: another doji .. buyers maybe just taking their time before assaulting 17.00 successfully ... sold a few more webs ... but more than half of the position still long

previous Ninja Monitor

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