in the news: scc (12 sept 2012)

Semirara pins high hopes on Bobog mine 

happy birthday faceless trader!

birthday greetings to fellow blogger and my idol ... faceless trader! :)

http://facelesstrader.wordpress.com/

is px already a buy? (px, 09 sept 2012)

due to the circumstances that the padcal mine finds itself in, px has been declining in price for the past weeks until last friday's close at 17.20 .. almost exactly the support during the first week of may 2011. is it already the bottom? is it already time to start buying bak our px shares?

let us see from a fundamental and technical point as tentatively done by urs truly ...

- px 1st half 2012 eps is 41 cents 

- assuming no production for the rest of 2012 as reported in sunday's news, px still has 1.77 billion pesos in inventories ... or roughly 30 cents in eps

- assume no costs and taxes ... px eps for 2012 is 71 cents ... 

- at last friday's closing of 17.20 ... px is trading at around 24.23 x earnings...

so is px currently a buy?

let us see again for a moment and compare it with some listed mining companies ...

atlas
1st half 2012 eps = 83 cents
annualised = 1.66 pesos
at 17.08 ... p/e 2012 = 10.29 x

marc ventures
1st half 2012 eps = 14.7 cents
annualised = 29.4 cents
at 2.30 ... p/e 2012 = 7.8 x

nickel asia
1st half 2012 eps = 95 cents
annualised = 1.90 pesos
at 17.20 ... p/e = 9.05 x

quite interesting ...
at a comparable p/e of 10x earnings ... px should be trading at around 7.10 pesos ...

technically ...
- px is already way way below its 50 and 200 dma and it just brokedown from its 20 dma
- macd is below 0 yet the macd histogram is still positive but pointing south and may possibly give a sell signal shortly
- rsi is already at oversold territory but sts is still a little above 20
- support is at 17.20 then 17.00

so ... is px already a buy?

i suggest to the reader to do his own analysis as an exercise ... will be good for u ... then lets compare notes

as for me ... ill wait a while first ... px may still go further south ... and i guess ill wait for the indicators to point up first before thinking of buying any share

good times! great trades!


p.s. all 1st half 2012 figures are from the pse website ... did not read the respective fs anymore

how do i pick which stocks to trade (07 sept 2012)

last saturday i attended a wealth securities seminar for newbies and prospective clients .. a friend of mine, a fellow blogger who works as a wealth securities analyst was one of the speakers ... and towards the end of the seminar, she introduced me to three attendees who she said wanted to meet me ... readers daw of my blog (wow .. i have 3 actual live blog readers! wooohooo!!) .. anyways we had an impromptu mini EB .. and i was asked how i pick the stocks i trade .. i evaded the question by replying to him with two of my stock picks for 2013 .. cirtek (chips) and pancake house (pckh) .. well .. i tot about it since and i guess its ok if i share or give an idea of how i pick the stocks that i trade .. so just to give it a structure ..  here it goes:

1. get stock ideas ... from:

- company news from online newsites
- pse website (company disclosures)
- fellow traders (financemanila.net ... chatrooms ... blogs (faceless trader of course tops my list)
- my broker (from inhouse rumours and other brokers at the trading floor)
- broker publications

2. read financial reports of companies with good stock stories from no. 1 ... classify companies into those with good fundamentals and those with bad fundamentals

3. check the charts of these companies .. classify into .. good charts .. bad charts

4. stocks with good fundamentals and good charts .. get included in the watch list ... these get priority 1 for trading (most of my trading come from this stock list)

5. stocks with bad fundamentals but with good charts ... get priority 2 .. these get traded when there is price action and volume

6. stocks with good fundamentals but bad charts ... get included in the monitoring list .. to be included later into priority 1 list when charts start to look good

7. stocks with bad fundamentals and bad charts ... get to be included also in the monitoring list ... until they get to qualify for either priority 1 or priority 2 lists

once i get to do these .. then i trade .. now .. when do i buy? see: when do i buy?

*always subject to change without prior notice :)


back to: my trading rules

broker monitor (fjp)

two major shareholders of fjp trades thru hdi securities: broker 174 and strategic equities: broker 192

the emperor's new clothes: tanduay holdings after it becomes lt group (05 sept 2012)

i was in a buffet dinner two fridays ago with some friends from finance manila and during our discussion on mergers and acquisitions .. the topic of tdy was brought up (btw ... rfm was also thoroughly discussed) ...one of the attendees asked whether tdy is already expensive or is it still undervalued considering the kapitan's various company assets said to be folded into tdy  (lt group post-asset infusion). the m&e expert present said that tdy was still undervalued (tdy closed @12.72 that friday) altho he did not mention his valuation of lt group) ... i said then that with the max. authorized capital stock that tdy is planning for lt group (25 B shares max) and the announced assets that will be supposedly folded into tdy ... the price of tdy is already too high ... altho i told him that i have to study again the disclosures so far posted in the pse website until that day …

with the recent disclosure: http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-6382_TDY.pdf ... im making these bak of the bus tiket calculations just as an exercise …

1. 2012 net income

income before income tax: 3.1 B pesos

provision for income tax: 0.6 B pesos

net income: 2.5 B (1^st half 2012)

net income annualized: 5.0 B

2. total number of shares of lt group:

3.981 B shares (as of 4 sept 2012) +

5 B shares (29 may 2012 BOD meeting) +

3 B shares (09 aug 2012 BOD meeting)

= 11.981 B shares (prospective)

3. 2012 estimated eps of lt group:

5.0 B pesos / 11.981 B shares

eps = .41733 centavos / share

4. estimated price of lt group at different p/e ratios:

at 10 x p/e = 10 x .41733 = 4.17

at 15 x p/e = 15 x .41733 = 6.26

at 20 x p/e = 20 x .41733 = 8.35

at 30 x p/e = 30 x .41733 = 12.52

so at 11.68 (closing price as of 4 sept 2012) tdy is trading at 28x 2012 estimated income ...

lets see at what price the coming share offerings of lt group will be set ;)

The Ninja Stock Monitor (31 aug 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence

rsi: relative strength index

sts: stochastics

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged 

(+): higher

(-): lower

31 aug 2012 closing prices 

aba (abacus consolidated resources)

c: .76 (+)

s: .74 (intraday low)
r:  .79 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 47.21(+)
sts: 25.02(+)

rem: macd indicators are quite ideal ... but still no macd buy signal but maybe coming soon ... just monitor ... add a few more if 1.00 is breached?

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 11.78 (+)
s: 11.62 (intraday low)
r:  11.80 (intraday high)
vol: (+)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 58.64(+)
sts: 91.5(-)

rem: sts pointing south ... histogram still positive but monitor carefully ... lighten up?

pip (pepsi)

c: 3.58 (+)
s: 3.51 (intraday low); 3.50
r:  3.59 (intraday high); 3.60; 3.65
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 66.56(+)
sts:80.18(+)

rem: 3.60 is a tough barrier to breach ...whats good is that no macd buy signal yet ... just monitor

tdy (tanduay holdings)

c: 11.92 (-)
s: 11.48 (intraday low);11
r:  12.36 (intraday high); 13
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 66.16(-); sell signal
sts:48(-)

rem: hammer ... while monitored indicators and price action are not optimistic ... 11.48 could be the bottom for the meantime ... monitor next candlestik 

web (philweb)

c: 16.94 (-)
s: 16.52 (intraday low)
r:  17.00 (intraday high)
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: <0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 75.81(-)
sts:96.58(-)

rem: another doji .. buyers maybe just taking their time before assaulting 17.00 successfully ... sold a few more webs ... but more than half of the position still long

previous Ninja Monitor

what i read today: What You NEED to Know to Be a Successful Investor (31 aug 2012)

What You NEED to Know to Be a Successful Investor

The Ninja Stock Monitor (29 aug 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
unch: unchanged 
(+): higher
(-): lower


29 aug 2012 closing prices 

agi (alliance global)

c: 11.86 (+)
s: 11.70 (intraday low); 11.08; 11.0
r:  11.88 (intraday high); 12
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 61.32(+)
sts: 82.68(+)
rem: followthru buying today .. but macd still in negative territory .. adjust stops 

previous AGI Monitor 

 

pip (pepsi) 

 

c: 3.60 (+)

s: 3.43 (intraday low); 3.40
r:  3.61 (intraday high); 3.65
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 69.48(+)
sts: 57.44(+)
rem: pip closed its highest ever today ... macd histogram changed direction (!) .. bottom possibly already reached at 3.41-3.42 levels ... still no macd buy signal .. macd signal possible in the coming days ... initial buybak position entered today .. adjust stop to breakeven price .. monitor closely 

 

 

web (philweb) 

 

c: 16.96 (+)

s: 16.30 (intraday low)
r:  17
vol: (+)
macd: > 0; sell signal
macd histogram: < 0
macd histogram direction:(-)
rsi: 77.41(+)
sts: 96.58(-)
rem: sell downs by desperate escapists ... but defenders bot web up again ... macd sell signal today ... lightened up a bit yesterday and today but majority of position still longish ... hanging men the past few days ... 

previous WEB Monitor 

The Ninja Stock Monitor (28 aug 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

these are my trading notes for my reference only
by no means are these to be taken by the reader as recommendations to buy or sell

legend:
c: closing price
s: support
r: resistance
vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)
macd: moving average convergence divergence
rsi: relative strength index
sts: stochastics
rem: remarks
unch: unchanged 
(+): higher
(-): lower


28 aug 2012 closing prices 

agi (alliance global)

c: 11.72 (+)
s: 11.22 (intraday low); 11.08; 11.0
r:  11.78/11.80; 12 (psych res)
vol: (+)
macd: < 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction:(+)
rsi: 58.57(+)
sts: 68.84(+)
rem: nice price action today ... macd still in negative territory .. breached 20-, 50- and 200 DMAs ... just adjust stops 

previous AGI Monitor 

web (philweb)

c: 16.92 (-)
s: 16.28 (intraday-low)
r: 16.94 (psych res)
vol: (-)
macd: > 0
macd histogram: > 0
macd histogram direction: (-) 
rsi: 76.9(-)
sts: 97.48 (-)
rem: rsi and sts at overbot levels ... macd, rsi and sts all declining .. macd may give a sell signal any day now .... lighten up position .. monitor closely ...


previous WEB Monitor