Monday, December 31, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor: LTG (31 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

28 dec closing prices

ltg (lt group)

c: 13.38(+)

s: 13.20, 13, 12.50, 12.42
r: : 13.90, 14, 14.50, 14.60, 14.66

vol: (+)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 67.25(+)

sts: 77.26(+)
remarks:

1. ltg broke thru its 13.34 resistance and even mounted an assault up to 13.90 on the last half of the trading day led by pan asia but was turned bak by atr's sellng .. closing still at its highest close ever at 13.38 ... maybe just year end window dressing? but last friday's volume was the highest the last 3 months ..
2.macd buy signal given ... rsi and sts both near overbot levels but still within the trading zone ...
3. just adjust stops
4. present trading range: 12.42-13.90

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

Sunday, December 30, 2012

my long shot bets for 2013 (30 dec 2012)

't'is the end of the year once again and people are in the mood to place their fearless forcasts for the coming year ... well .. i dont have any dark horse bets for the coming year like i did last year .. see: my dark horse bets for 2012 (23 jan 2012) ... what i have for 2013 is my list of "long shot" bets ... pwedeng ma-shoot ... pwede din hindi ... long shot e ... hehe .. here goes ... :

1. ca (concrete aggregates): ... maybe by 2013 ...the ortigas family will be able to address already the issue of what to do with their ortigas and co. holding company ... either: a. have the ayalas or the sys form joint venture projects with them ... b. sell ortigas and co. to either the ayalas or sys lock stock and barrel ... c. mount an IPO .. or d .. use ca (a majority-owned subsidiary of ortigas and co) as their bakdoor veihicle ...

2. prim (prime media holdings): prim's restructuring has been previously postponed from 2012 to the 1st quarter 2013 ... im awaiting what mr. pangilinan's plans are for prim this coming year ...

3. alhi (anchor land holdings): im speculating another generous cash and stock div will again be given in 2013 ..

4. vul (vulcan industrial and mining corp): maybe mr. ramos of national bookstore will be able to decide already what to do with vul ...

5. mmi (mariwasa siam holdings) ... the anggala group has not yet disclosed what they will do with the empty mmi after buying it from the cosetengs ... a backdoor for the gaisano group perhaps?

i guess ill stop at these 5 bets for the mean time ....

a more profitable year to all you blog readers for 2013!!!

LTG Q3 2012

LT Group (LTG) Q3 2012

assets: 70.096 billion pesos
liabilities: 22.705 billion pesos
equity attributable to parent company: 31.589 billion pesos
paid-up capital: 8.981 billion pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 5.754 million pesos
retained earnings: 18.034 billion pesos

net sales 9 months 2012: 18.899 billion pesos
net sales 9 months 2011: 19.279 billion pesos
% change: -1.97%

net income 9 months 2012 attributable to parent company: 2.503 billion pesos
net income 9 months 2011 attributable to parent company: 3.086 million pesos
% change: -18.90%

last closing price (28 dec 2012): 13.38 pesos
earnings per share (annualized): 37.16 centavos
price-earnings ratio: 36.01 x
book value per share: 3.52 pesos
price/book value: 3.80
return on equity: 10.57%
return on assets: 4.76%
net income margin: 13.25%

current ratio: 2.15
debt-to-equity: 0.72

notes:
1. the Q3 2012 net income of LTG only includes the incomes from 3 subsidiaries/affiliates:
a. tanduay: 470 million pesos (10.95%)
b: asia brewery: 465 million pesos (10.83%)
c. fortune tobacco: 3.36 billion pesos (78.22%)
2. It does not include yet ETON, PAL, PNB/Allied Bank
3. p/e at present looks pricey to me
4. LTG at present looks like the local version of ALTRIA and DIAGEO ... cash cows altho fortune tobacco seems to contribute the bulk to ltg's net income (78.22%)
5. how much an impact on ltg will be the implementation of the sin tax law .. i have no idea yet .. in trading ltg then i will just have to play it by ear

source of basic data:
Q3 2012 Financial Report 2012
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/TDY_17Q_Sep2012.pdf

other references
Additional information re: placing and subscription transaction of and issuance of shares to Tangent Holdings Corporation, investment in
several companies
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-9335_LTG.pdf

Saturday, December 29, 2012

what i read today: React, Not Predict - a Basic Tenet fo the Turtle Way to Trade (dec 28 2012)

- im no turtle follower .. but trend following is also a basic tenet in my trading ... as im no plaza miranda manghuhula (wink wink):

React, Not Predict - a Basic Tenet fo the Turtle Way to Trade

read more:

Trading Systems: Run With The Herd Or Be A Lone Wolf?

Friday, December 28, 2012

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PAX (28 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

27 dec closing prices

pax (paxys)

c: 2.98(-)

s: 2.97, 2.93, 2.88
r: 3.00, 3.03/3.04, 3.11, 3.13

vol: (-)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 47.3(-)

sts: 19.21(-)
remarks:

1. pax retreated again below the 3 pesos psych support ...
2. just trade according to plan
3. present trading range: 2.88-3.13

previous PAX monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: PAX (27 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (28 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

27 dec closing prices

sm (sm investments corp)

c: 880(-)

s: 875/873.50, 860, 850, 847, 830, 816
r: 900, 902.50

vol: (-)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 57.27(-)

sts: 86.74(+)
remarks:

1. sm was sold down bak below 900 ... profit taking ahead of the long vacation?
2. options:
a. sell when stops are hit .. just buy bak later if sm hits new bottom or when sm breaches 900 again
b. just hold

previous SM monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (27 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

Thursday, December 27, 2012

today's log: mmi ... some blog stats (27 dec 2012)

- sold some mmi yesterday and today

- during the lull in trading today .. i clicked the stat button of this blog and was quite surprised by what i found out ... as of 3 pm .. 27 dec 2012 ... during the past 24 hours ... there were 21 viewers from russia ... 14 viewers from the cayman islands and 9 viewers from norway among others ... im quite shocked that i got those number of viewers from such places .. as far as i know ... there are only 8 (from 3) regular readers of this blog .. all from manila! nope .. not all of them are ex-girlfriends wehehe ...

thanks to all of you for reading this blog!

The Ninja Stock Monitor: CAL (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

27 dec (as of 12 noon)

cal (calata corporation)

c: 3.70(-)

s: 3.65
r: 3.90

vol: (-)

macd: < 0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 20.07(-)

sts: 7.23(-)
remarks:

1. as of 12 noon today .. cal is @3.70 .. breaching its lowest closing @3.80 on 18 dec 2012 ... and just 5 cents above its lowest intraday @3.65 posted the same day ...
2. good luck! and happy new year! :D

previous CAL monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: CAL (20 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PAX (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

pax (paxys)

c: 3.02(+)

s: 2.98, 2.93, 2.88
r: 3.03, 3.11, 3.13

vol: (-)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 48.98(+)

sts: 26.55(-)
remarks:

1. pax closed above 3 pesos @3.02 ... histogram still below 0 ... but pointing up ...
2. just continue holding ...
3. present trading range: 2.88-3.13

previous PAX monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: PAX (20 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

vul (vulcan industrial and mining corp)

c: 1.45 (unchanged)

s: 1.44, 1.40
r: 1.49, 1.50, 1.55

vol: (+)

macd: <0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 45.55(unchanged)
sts: 7.5(+)

remarks:

1. vul closed unchanged ... doji ... see previous vul monitor remarks

previous VUL monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (22 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: VLL (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

vll (vista land and landscapes)

c: 4.88(+)

s: 4.73, 4.69/4.70
r: 4.90, 5.0

vol: (-)

macd: < 0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 40.74(+) ... green arrow

sts: 11.63(+)
remarks:

1. vll closed higher @ 4.88 .. macd (-,-,+) ... histogram changed direction ... pointing up ... possible interim bottom @4.73/4.75 ...
2. rsi green arrow
3. thinking of reentering vll in the coming days ...

previous VLL monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: VLL (21 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: AGI (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 16.50(unchanged)

s: 16.48, 16.34, 16.26, 16.08
r: 16.70, 16.88

vol: (-)

macd: >0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 62.01(unchanged)
sts: 64.3(+)

remarks:

1. agi closed unchanged .. doji ... just continue holding ...
2. the 16.70 resistance still strong ...

previous AGI monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: AGI (26 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

sm (sm investments corp)

c: 900.50(+)

s: 900, 873.50, 860, 850, 847, 830, 816
r: 902.50

vol: (-)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 63.62(+)

sts: 85.17(+)
remarks:

1. sm finally breaches 900 pesos ... closing higher @900.50 ...
2. macd buy signal given ... rsi/sts near or at overbot levels ...
3. just hold .. adjust stops ... i may add some if sm stays above 900 mark ...
4. caution: it is also possible that sm retreats back below 900 .. just trade according to plan ...

previous SM monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (26 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (27 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

26 dec closing prices

gtcap (gt capital holdings)

c: 645(-)

s: 640, 634, 630
r: 659, 664, 677.50,684, 690

vol: (-)

macd: >0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 61.61(unchanged)
sts: 61.52(-)

remarks:

1. gtcap closed unchanged ... doji ... possible interim bottom already reached?
2. ill just continue holding (refer to previous monitor's remarks)

previous GTCAP monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (26 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

what i read today: The Economic Lessons of Bethlehem (26 dec 2012)

The Economic Lessons of Bethlehem

The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (26 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

21 dec closing prices

gtcap (gt capital holdings)

c: 645(-)

s: 640, 634, 630
r: 664, 677.50,684, 690

vol: (-)

macd: >0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (-)
rsi: 61.61(-)
sts: 63.03(-)

remarks:

1. macd gave a red arrow
2. rsi sts both pointing down...
3. im just holding ... will make this an exception ... will suspend my stop loss rule

previous GTCAP monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (19 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: AGI (26 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

21 dec closing prices

agi (alliance global inc)

c: 16.50(unchanged)

s: 16.34, 16.26, 16.08
r: 16.70, 16.88

vol: (average)

macd: >0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 62.01(unchanged)
sts: 58.18(+)

remarks:

1. just hold ...
2. macd histogram still below 0 ... rsi/sts both still within trading range
3. present trading range: 16.08-16.88

previous AGI monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: AGI (20 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (26 dec 2012)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

legend:

c: closing price

s: support

r: resistance

vol: volume (+ above 5dma; - below 5dma)

macd: moving average convergence divergence ... values: 12; 26; 9

rsi: relative strength index ... values: 14; 30; 70

sts: stochastics ... values: 15; 3; 5

rem: remarks

unch: unchanged

(+): higher

(-): lower

21 dec closing prices

sm (sm investments corp)

c: 889.50(+)

s: 860, 850, 847, 830, 816
r: 889.50/890, 894, 899

vol: (-)

macd: > 0

macd histogram: <0

macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 61.49(+)

sts: 66.27(+)
remarks:

1. im just holding my position ... if the resistance at 899 is sold down and my supports are hit .. ill just hold ... not worth the bother to trade it .. im making a gamble that sm will be trading above the 900 psych res in 2013 and that 899 and below is already history
2. ill add if sm breaches and closes above the 899/900 threshold
3. present trading range is 816-899

previous SM monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (20 dec 2012)

see also:

how do i pick which stocks to trade

my trading tactics

what i dont

entering a trade