Tuesday, April 30, 2013

just charts: vll/VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES, INC. (30 apr 2013)

apm chart as of 30 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

today's rant: bel (30 apr 2013)

anak ng pating ... di pa nag-iinit pwet ko sa silya matapos kong ibida si bel .. heto't naglabas ng balita ang bir na babaguhin ang bayaring buwis ng pagcor at mga casino kahapon ... ayun .. naamoy agad ng mga pating at nagsibentahan na agad ... tumuloy pa din ng bentahan kanina sa bel ... nasira tuloy diskarte ko .. buti na lang initial position pa lang ang binili ko at para 2014 pa naman ang buying ko .. kaka-bad trip lang ...

papahupain ko muna ang isyu bago pag-isipan uli kung papasukin ko ulit si bel (yep ... tinamaan stop ko e .. pakshet talaga oo)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PNB (30 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

30 apr 2013 closing prices

pnb (philippine national bank)

c: 115.00(+)
s: 112, 111, 110, 108.50, 105.80
r: 115, 120
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: up/higher
rsi: 77.43(+)
sts: 96.04(+)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

pnb chart as of 30 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (30 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

30 apr 2013 closing prices

mpi (metro pacific investments)

c: 6.09(+)
s: 6.0, 5.85/5.86, 5.75

r: 6.10, 6.15, 6.20

vol: (+)

macd: >0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: up/higher

rsi: 68.79(+)

sts: 80.17(+)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

mpi chart as of 30 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

broker monitor: i (29 apr 2013)

management uses broker 243 (fidelity securities) in its share buy bak program

what i read today: Having A Plan: The Basis Of Success (29 apr 2013)

Having A Plan: The Basis Of Success

touche'!: a reader reacts (29 april 2013)

fm reader:

Gud am,

Medyo nalito ako sa latest BEL blog mo. Overbought na si RSI and STS. MACDO pointing down. RSI din medyo pointng down na. And you still bought on Friday?

I think one consolation is the DMI is pointing up (possible continuing uptrend).

Are you riding this because of the 52 week high status? And for the fundamentals?

Thanks again for any comments..

my reply:

hahaha .. good observation ...

i bought bel just to have an initial position .. without even looking at the chart ... well if u want a chart justification .. breakout sya sa 7 pesos ... :lol:

yung 52 week high status is not enough reason to buy bel .. kasi if totoo yung rule .. sa tuesday e bababa yan .. tuesday should be the time to buy bel .. pero i still bought nung friday ..

aftertot na lang yung breakout and fundamental justification (the 1Q 2013 income makes bel too cheap at this price na)

in short .. tama ka ... i just violated all my rules based on the indicators you mentioned above ... pero gusto ko lang mag ka bel nung friday .. oks lang ma whipsaw

tnx for your reaction .. and for reading the blog

what i read today: Getting Rich: from Zero to Hero in One Blog Post (29 apr 2013)

Getting Rich: from Zero to Hero in One Blog Post

Sunday, April 28, 2013

an afternoon chat: a question about stop-loss orders/trailing stops (28 apr 2013)

i had a chat with an fm member on ym just this afternoon .. she was asking me about cutting losses (stop-loss orders/trailing stops).. here was our ym exchange ...

fm member: pwede ask kung paano ka mag cut sa stock? sa mjor support or pag break yong ilang days na support if ok lang share

me: ok ... pasok ako initial position .. pag change ng direction ng macd ... which means nag bottom na sya

me: whatever the bottom is .. initial cutloss (stop-loss) ko just lower than that bottom

me: if mali pasok ko .. the price will go down ..

me: most likely tatamaan cutloss (stop-loss) ko ... therefore i sell .. end of story

me: pero kung tumaas yung price .. adjust ko cutloss (stop-loss) ko pataas .. trailing stop na yun kasi profit na ako .. hindi na cutloss (stop-loss)

me: so .. either below next major support .. or below next psych support

me: adjust lang lagi pataas yung stop if the price advances

me: and since stop ang gamit ko .. wala ako target price .. ill stay in the trade as long as my stop is not hit

fm member: example pumasok ako sa gitna na ng uptrend saan ako pwede mag cut?

me: hahahaha ... mahirap yan .. kaya hindi ako pumapasok sa gitna .. kasi mas malaki possibility ma whipsaw

me: as much as possible .. i enter at the bottom

me: yung risk reward is infinite

me: if sa gitna ka papasok .. the risk reward is 50% .. parang toss coin na lang yan

me: kaya madalas maipit mga tao .. above the 50% ng uptrend na sila pumapasok .. usually nga sa top na

me: makikita naman sa chart yun

me: kung stupid ang tao papasok sa taas .. im sure stupid sya na hindi sya mag cut loss

fm member: example yong agi nag down na cya pero konte lang tapos mukha start uli akyat macd kaya ok na uli kahit na hindi cya pa neg ang macd?

me: immidiate bottom nya 23.75 ... so cutloss (stop-loss) should be a little lower ... 23.70 or 23.50

me: if nung friday ka pumasok .. support is 24.20 ... so cutloss (stop-loss) is below 24.20

me: nagclose sa 25 .. so if it closes higher .. move the stop sa 25 .. mga 24.90

fm member: tnx ... dami ko natuto sa iyo and u r so generous na magturo ngayon lang ako natuto sa aking senior year na. haha at yon ay dahil sa iyo na wala pang bayad. tnx again

me: anytime ...

me: paper trade mo muna lahat ... bago mo i apply with real money

me: madali lang trading .. kaya lang mahirap .. gambler mga tao .. papasok na yung risk e malaki

me: nasa chart naman lahat makikita

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

back to: my trading rules

PCKH 2012

Pancake House (PCKH) 2012

assets: 2.882 billion pesos
liabilities: 1.847 billion pesos
equity attributable to parent company: 890.9 million pesos
paid-up capital: 237.8 million pesos
cash and cash equivalent: 372.5 million pesos
retained earnings (unappropriated): 350.1 million pesos (note 1)

revenues 2012: 3.431 billion pesos
revenues 2011: 2.342 billion pesos
% change: 46.50%

net income 2012 attributable to parent company: 150.8 million pesos
net income 2011 attributable to parent company: 90.2 million pesos
% change: 67.3%

last closing price (26 apr 2013): 11.50 pesos
earnings per share (basic): .63 pesos
earnings per share (diluted): .59 pesos
price-earnings ratio (basic): 18.25 x
price-earnings ratio (diluted): 19.49 x
book value per share: 3.75 pesos
price/book value: 3.07
return on equity: 14.40%
return on assets: 5.17%
net income margin: 4.34%

current ratio: 1.01
debt-to-equity: 1.77

notes:

1. the restricted retained earnings amount to: 8.9 million (note 16 of 2012 FS)

source of data: Financial Report 2012
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2013/PCKH_17A_Dec2012.pdf

Saturday, April 27, 2013

The Ninja Stock Monitor: BEL (27 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

26 apr 2013 closing prices

bel (belle corporation)

c: 7.01(+)

s: 6.97, 6.62, 6.50

r: 7.06, 7.10, 7.20

vol: (-)

macd: >0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: down/lower

rsi: 75.25(+)

sts: 92.46(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

bel chart as of 26 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PNB (27 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

26 apr 2013 closing prices

pnb (philippine national bank)

c: 111.00(+)
s: 108.50, 105.80
r: 111.80, 115, 120
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: up/higher
rsi: 71.90(+)
sts: 86.06(+)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

pnb chart as of 26 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

a stock pick for 2014 (27 apr 2013)

i just realised the other night that i may be overlooking certain stocks because of previous biases ...

well .. starting yesterday .. im beginning my opportunistic bored lot buying of bel ... way ahead of its casino's opening next year ... why so? well ... the price movement of its two affiliates the past few days drew my attention to bel and made me read on a little bit ...

as of 31 mar 2013 ... bel owns:

- 46.5933% of the apc group
- 44.0618% of sino

the apc group has had some price action the past months because of the rumour that it will be the listing vehicle of the sy family's power assets ...

sino on the other hand received some trading action the past week ... i can only guess that sino may be a bakdoor vehicle for the bel casino ... considering that sino's past investments are in the gaming sector ...

this may be far fetched and sooo long shot ... but im speculating that aside from its casino developnment, bel may receive additional attention as it may be seen as a proxy play for apc and sino ...

however, even if nothing comes out of apc and sino .. ill still have the casino as ongoing story which may continue to buoy bel's shares in the coming months up to next year

notes:

1. bel's 1Q 2013 net income as recently reported in the newspapers was 785 million ...
2. bels total outstanding shares is: 10.559 billlion shares
3. 1Q 2013 eps = 7.4344 centavos
4. assume 2013 eps = 7.4344 centavos x 4 = 29.7375 centavos
5. last trade price (26 april 2013) = 7.01 pesos
6. suntok sa buwan 2013 p/e = 7.01 / .297375 = 23.573 x

a reader's question: vul (27 apr 2013)

a question from a reader from the finance manila stock market forum:

sir, do u think VUL has some upside left?

anu po cut loss nyo dito if u have?

my reply:

if may upside pa .. lets just wait what the chart says .. down trend pa yata e ..

wala pa ako cutloss since wala pa ako buybak ... my cutloss will depend on my re-entry price

legacy's 52-week highs (27 apr 2013)

legacy (leg for short) ... finance manila occasional poster and desert storm (DS) chatroom member daily shares stock tidbits in DS's chatroom ... among those bits of info are the stocks with the highest and lowest closes for the past 52-weeks ... with his permission .. id like to post here the stocks on their 52-week highs based on their closing prices as of friday, 26 april 2013 ...:

today's log: apm, agi, bel (27 apr 2013)

26 april 2013 trades

sold all apm

bot bak some agi

bot some bel

whatever: 99 Life Hacks to make your life easier! (27 apr 2013)

99 Life Hacks to make your life easier!

http://siriuslymeg.tumblr.com/post/33738057928/99-life-hacks-to-make-your-life-easier

Thursday, April 25, 2013

just charts: sm/sm investments corp (25 apr 2013)

sm chart as of 25 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

note: bot bak some sm today

broker monitor: pckh (25 apr 2013)

martin lorenzo, pckh boss, uses da market securities (broker 204) in buying pckh shares

just charts: vul/vulcan industrial and mining corp (25 apr 2013)

vul chart as of 24 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

1. just charts: vul/vulcan industrial and mining corp (23 apr 2013)
2. legacy's 52-week highs (20 apr 2013)
3. "Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule"
4. 52-Week High Definition

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

there is a disturbance in the force ... finally! pckh (24 apr 2013)

just a short remark:

i noted some unusual price action the past days in pancake house ... last thursday (18 apr 2013) .. da market securities bought up pancake house from below 8 pesos and closed it at around 9 pesos with not the usual pancake house volume (note: pancake house rarely trades) ..

yesterday ... lucky securities, golden tower and again da market securities combined and bought up pckh to a high of 12 pesos before some bastard sold it down to close it @11.50

i sense a disturbance in the force .... but i like it :)

pckh was 1 of 2 stocks i mentioned to fellow traders august/september 2012 that i said were my stock picks for 2013 .. the other was cirtek (chips) .. however chips only just weeks later surged ahead to around 12 pesos and even to a peak of around 29 pesos february this year ...

will be monitoring pckh closely ... baka meron pa sumunod na price action ...

always wear ur parachute!

previous posts on pckh:

an evening to remember ... 2 stocks for 2013 (27 aug 2012)

how do i pick which stocks to trade (07 sept 2012)

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PNB (23 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

23 apr 2013 closing prices

pnb (philippine national bank)

c: 109.80(+)
s: 106.20, 105.20, 102.90/102.50, 100
r: 110, 110.90
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: up/higher
rsi: 73.91(+)
sts: 93.92(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

pnb chart as of 23 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MPI (23 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

23 apr 2013 closing prices

mpi (metro pacific investments)

c: 5.94(+)
s: 5.86, 5.75

r: 5.97, 6.0

vol: (-)

macd: >0

macd histogram: >0

macd histogram direction: up/higher

rsi: 68.25(+)

sts: 78.99(+)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

mpi chart as of 23 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

vul chart as of 23 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

1. legacy's 52-week highs (20 apr 2013)

2. "Secrets of the 52 Week High Friday Rule"

3. 52-Week High Definition

The Ninja Stock Monitor: PNB (23 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

22 apr 2013 closing prices

pnb (philippine national bank)

c: 107.90(+)
s: 105.20, 102.90/102.50, 100
r: 108.40, 110
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: up/higher
rsi: 70.84(+)
sts: 94.14(+)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

pnb chart as of 22 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (22 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

22 apr 2013 closing prices

vul (vulcan industrial and mining corp)

c: 2.20(-)
s: 2.20, 2.04, 2.0, 1.80, 1.76, 1.71, 1.58,
r: 2.30/2.31, 2.40, 2.50
vol: (-)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 87.67(-)
sts: 82.16(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

vul chart as of 22 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: MBT (22 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

22 apr 2013 closing prices

mbt (metropolitan bank and trust comp.)

c: 125(+)
s: 122, 120.50, 120.10/120, 119.30, 116.90, 115, 112.90
r: 130
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 68.97(+)
sts: 87.72(unchanged)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

mbt chart as of 22 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: SM (21 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

19 apr 2013 closing prices

sm (sm investments corp)

c: 1125(+)
s: 1111, 1105, 1100, 1077
r: 1130, 1135, 1139, 1150, 1155, 1199
v: (+)
macd: (+)
macd histogram: (-)
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 58.93(+)
sts: 44.49(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

sm chart as of 19 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

non-stok tots: ramen time (21 apr 2013)

last week, after consulting with my doctor at the heart center for a possible rogue blood clot in my left leg ... i tot of having my late lunch (it was already around 1.30 pm then) at sm north's the bloc ... it must have been eons ago already since i last malled around the bloc's premises ... i think it was on the 3rd floor where i saw kimono ken .. havent been to kimono ken ever .. and i asked the cute attendant at the door if they have ramen and gyoza ... upon hearing the affirmative ... i braved their irasshai welcome and seated my self just near the entrance ... i was offered some fancy ramen .. it is their house best daw ... i just said .. "give me one bowl of shoyu ramen ... and if they can steam their gyoza .. i want it with my san mig light" .. they also have kirin .. pero maybe next time ill have kirin with my gyoza ...

just charts: meg/megaworld corp (20 apr 2013)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (20 apr 2013)

legacy's 52-week highs (20 apr 2013)

today's log: vul, stok xxx (19 apr 2013)

The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (19 apr 2013)

Meralco clinches deals in Africa

PH firm takes part in powering up Nigeria’s utilities

By Doris C. Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
3:18 am | Friday, April 19th, 2013

http://business.inquirer.net/117489/meralco-clinches-deals-in-africa

National Book Store to list on stock exchange

By Doris C. Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
3:30 pm | Thursday, April 18th, 2013

http://business.inquirer.net/117403/national-book-store-to-list-on-stock-exchange

Ayala Land discloses growth strategies

By Doris C. Dumlao
3:20 am | Thursday, April 18th, 2013

http://business.inquirer.net/117291/ayala-land-to-develop-chain-of-affordable-hotels

Ayala, Phinma groups bag rights to sell output of joint-venture coal power plant

By: Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo, InterAksyon.com
April 18, 2013 2:20 PMhttp://www.interaksyon.com/business/59729/ayala-phinma-groups-bag-rights-to-sell-output-of-joint-venture-coal-power-plant

Vivant-led group to build oil-fired power plants in Calamian Islands

By: Euan Paulo C. AÃ±onuevo, InterAksyon.com
April 18, 2013 3:28 PMhttp://www.interaksyon.com/business/59740/vivant-led-group-to-build-oil-fired-power-plants-in-calamian-islands

Myanmar approves Universal Robina's maiden investment

By: Krista Angela M. Montealegre, InterAksyon.com
April 18, 2013 6:12 PMhttp://www.interaksyon.com/business/59756/myanmar-approves-universal-robinas-maiden-investment

Thursday, April 18, 2013

today i commemmorate my own .. meet my idol day (18 apr 2013)

its quite a rare opportunity to meet one's stock market idol face to face ... but this was exactly what happened to me two years ago today, 18 april 2011, when my trading muse .. my goddess of the markets ... sat in front of me to talk stocks ...

and to commemmorate that event .. i make this day ... and every april 18 after today, my meet my idol day ..

here is a link to a series of posts i made in the finance manila stock market forum at that time:

http://www.financemanila.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=652&p=383251#p383251

just a caveat tho, the trading rules shared in those 2011 finance manila posts may no longer be current ... like .. presently, she now also uses fundamental analysis in her trading, as she is now a stock analyst on the consumer sector of a local brokerage house ...

for more about my idol ... just click this youtube link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGvOAtKo-AI

an enjoyable trading day ahead of us!!

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (17 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

17 apr 2013 closing prices

vul (vulcan industrial and mining corp)

c: 1.88(+)
s: 1.80, 1.76, 1.71, 1.58,
r: 1.89, 1.95, 2, 2.08, 2.20
vol: (+)
macd: >0
macd histogram: >0
macd histogram direction: (+)
rsi: 82.06(+)
sts: 79.99(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

vul chart as of 17 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge)

remarks:

1. vul took center stage today by rising 14.63% compared to it previous day's close .. settling @ 1.88 ..
2. the macd histogram reversed course .. now higher .. the rsi is in ober bot territory while the sts crossed bak to the trading zone ... the price action was not enough to keep the sts at oberbot levels ...
3. i sold 2/3 of my vul position today with the thought that daytraders will fade vul ... will just buy bak again either near the bottom or just after it closes bak up above 2 peso agains ..

previous VUL posts:

1. The Ninja Stock Monitor: VUL (07 feb 2013)
2. my long shot bets for 2013 (30 dec 2012)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s.: readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose

today's log: mpi, vul (17 apr 2013)

today's trades:

bot bak the other half of my mpi position i sold last monday ...

sold 2/3 of my vul position

today's log: alhi, mpi, mbt, gtcap, meg

bot some alhi last week

sold all my mpi last monday

sold some mbt last monday

bot some meg last monday

bot bak half of my mpi position last tuesday

bot bak some gtcap

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (16 apr 2013)

selected technical indicators of PSE-listed stocks

16 apr 2013 closing prices

gtcap (gt capital holdings)

c: 765(-)

s: 762, 747, 731.50

r: 783, 790

vol: (+)

macd: (+)

macd histogram: (+)

macd histogram direction: (-)

rsi: 53.58(-)

sts: 67.22(-)

for an explanation of the indicators ... click: here

gtcap chart as of 16 apr 2013

(click on the chart to enlarge):

remarks:

1. gtcap closed lower (765) ...
2. the macd histogram is lower .. same with the rsi and sts ...
3. options:
a. do nothing .. wait for gtcap to find its bottom ...
b. buy initial position .. anticipating that the bottom has already been reached .... (@765)
4. trading range: 739 - 790 (intraday prices)

previous GTCAP monitor: The Ninja Stock Monitor: GTCAP (23 mar 2013)

for reference .. you may also want to read: my trading rules

p.s. readers are encouraged to check out the stocks' charts themselves .. using the values for each of the indicators (the values for the indicators are the default values used in citiseconline.com's charts) ... in the absence of any personal charting program, the pse website's charts are enough for the purpose